Pisa 1-1 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 36%, yet in-form Pisa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pisa vs Brescia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Brescia travel to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to take on Pisa in Serie B (matchday 14). The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 November 2023 at 15:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Pisa stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pisa's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.30 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Brescia — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Brescia have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Pisa are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Pisa, 0 for Brescia and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 13 May 2023, ended Pisa 1–1 Brescia — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Pisa in-play tendencies (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Brescia in-play tendencies (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 57% versus Brescia 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pisa 45% | Brescia 33%). Note also that Brescia surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Pisa recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.16 xG and Brescia 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.029 / defence 1.125 | Brescia attack 0.897 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 1.200. Data: built from Pisa's last 51 games and Brescia's last 50.
Result probabilities: Pisa 33% | Draw 31% | Brescia 36%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 3.00 | Draw 3.25 | Brescia 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Brescia as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pisa (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brescia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Pisa 90% (last 10 home games) | Brescia 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, matchday 14 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 33% | Draw 31% | Brescia 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Pisa 1.16 / Brescia 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.029 / def 1.125 | Brescia attack 0.897 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.109 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Brescia (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Brescia xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pisa vs Brescia FAQs
What time does Pisa vs Brescia kick off?
Pisa vs Brescia kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Brescia?
Pisa 1 - 1 Brescia.
Where is Pisa vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Brescia part of?
Pisa vs Brescia is a Serie B fixture (matchday 14) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 33% chance of winning, Brescia a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Pisa and Brescia will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Pisa vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pisa's attack rating (1.03) and Brescia's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brescia's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pisa's last 51 games and Brescia's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
33%
3.00
31%
3.25
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.37
1.21
Brescia xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
10%
10.08
11%
8.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.3 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pisa vs Brescia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Pisa and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Pisa and 1.21 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Pisa have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 15W 18D 18L record — W-L-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Brescia's form line: 11W 18D 22L from 51 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 1.24 PPG, Brescia on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Pisa have posted 1.24 PPG from their last 25 home games (8W 7D 10L).
On the road, Brescia have gone 5W 8D 12L from their last 25 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Pisa are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 0.86 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Brescia
Blended
Pisa (Home) vs Brescia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pisa
Blended
Brescia
Blended
❓ Pisa vs Brescia Form FAQs
What form are Pisa and Brescia in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 15W 18D 18L in their last 51 games (1.24 PPG), while Brescia have gone 11W 18D 22L in their last 51 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Brescia away?
Pisa's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.24 PPG; Brescia away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Pisa or Brescia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Brescia in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 25 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pisa have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Dec 2022, when Pisa won Pisa 3-0 Brescia.
Pisa's record when hosting Brescia specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Pisa
3
Draws
1
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Pisa vs Brescia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Brescia?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Pisa have won 4, Brescia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Brescia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2025: Brescia 1-2 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Brescia?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 68%, Brescia 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Pisa) and 44% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Brescia in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pisa vs Brescia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pisa and Brescia matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Pisa's games and 44% of Brescia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Pisa and Brescia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Pisa's recent games and 44% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Brescia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 92% of Pisa's recent matches and 68% of Brescia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa and Brescia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa and Brescia finished level at 1-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.16 xG and Brescia 1.21 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.03 / defence 1.12 against Brescia attack 0.90 / defence 1.01, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 33% | Draw 31% | Brescia 36%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 45%, Brescia 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Brescia's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.24 PPG, Brescia 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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