Cosenza 2-0 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cosenza vs Reggiana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cosenza host Reggiana at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Serie B, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 November 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cosenza stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Reggiana have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Reggiana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Reggiana have posted 2W 2D 2L from 6 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cosenza 1.20 PPG, Reggiana 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Cosenza in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games).
Reggiana in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 50% versus Reggiana 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 50% | Reggiana 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.50 xG and Reggiana 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 1.177 / defence 1.018 | Reggiana attack 0.969 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.095 / away 1.149. Data: 50 Cosenza games / 12 Reggiana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 44% | Draw 29% | Reggiana 27%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Reggiana 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cosenza are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Cosenza 60% | Reggiana 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 44% | Draw 29% | Reggiana 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Cosenza 1.50 / Reggiana 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 1.177 / def 1.018 | Reggiana attack 0.969 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.095 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Reggiana xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Reggiana kick off?
Cosenza vs Reggiana kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Reggiana?
Cosenza 2 - 0 Reggiana.
Where is Cosenza vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Reggiana part of?
Cosenza vs Reggiana is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 44% chance of winning, Reggiana a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Cosenza and Reggiana will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Reggiana?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cosenza and Reggiana in?
Cosenza (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Reggiana (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cosenza's attack rating (1.18) and Reggiana's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Reggiana's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.2%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
44%
2.27
29%
3.45
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.64
1.13
Reggiana xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
6%
16.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.2 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.13 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cosenza come into this having played 12 games, going 4W 4D 4L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Reggiana sit at 1.25 PPG from 12 outings (3W 6D 3L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Reggiana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cosenza on 1.33 PPG, Reggiana on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cosenza's home form reads 2W 2D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Reggiana have taken 1.33 points per game from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Cosenza are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.08 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Reggiana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 4W 4D 4L in their last 12 games (1.33 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 3W 6D 3L in their last 12 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Reggiana away?
Cosenza's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.33 PPG; Reggiana away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Reggiana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Reggiana in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cosenza go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Apr 2024, when Cosenza won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cosenza's record when hosting Reggiana specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Cosenza
0
Draws
0
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Reggiana?
From 4 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 4, Reggiana have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Reggiana last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2025, when Cosenza 1-0 Reggiana.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Reggiana?
Cosenza have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 67%, Reggiana 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Cosenza and 67% for Reggiana. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cosenza keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Reggiana in 33%; Reggiana in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Reggiana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Cosenza's recent matches and 33% of Reggiana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Reggiana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Cosenza's matches and 67% of Reggiana's.
Do Cosenza and Reggiana tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Reggiana in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cosenza cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Reggiana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Reggiana 2-0 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.50 xG and Reggiana 1.13 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Reggiana landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 1.18 / defence 1.02 against Reggiana attack 0.97 / defence 1.17, drawn from 50/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 44% | Draw 29% | Reggiana 27%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 50%, Reggiana 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Reggiana's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.33 PPG, Reggiana 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cosenza win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.