Cosenza 1-1 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cosenza face Pisa.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla plays host to Cosenza versus Pisa in Serie B (matchday 23). Kick-off: Saturday 3 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Cosenza have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Cosenza at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pisa's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Cosenza, 1.30 for Pisa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Cosenza 2–1 Pisa — a Cosenza win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Cosenza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Pisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 47% versus Pisa 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 37% | Pisa 45%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cosenza surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Pisa have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.44 xG and Pisa 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 1.117 / defence 1.054 | Pisa attack 0.978 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.206. Data: built from Cosenza's last 60 games and Pisa's last 60.
Result probabilities: Cosenza 41% | Draw 27% | Pisa 32%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.44 | Draw 3.72 | Pisa 3.11. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cosenza as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cosenza if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cosenza 70% (last 10 home games) | Pisa 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, matchday 23 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 3 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 41% | Draw 27% | Pisa 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Cosenza 1.44 / Pisa 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 1.117 / def 1.054 | Pisa attack 0.978 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Pisa xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cosenza vs Pisa FAQs
What time does Cosenza vs Pisa kick off?
Cosenza vs Pisa kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Pisa?
Cosenza 1 - 1 Pisa.
Where is Cosenza vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Pisa part of?
Cosenza vs Pisa is a Serie B fixture (matchday 23) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 41% chance of winning, Pisa a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Cosenza and Pisa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cosenza vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cosenza's attack at 1.12x the league average against Pisa's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (0.98x) against Cosenza's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from Cosenza's last 60 games and Pisa's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
41%
2.44
27%
3.72
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.68
1.24
Pisa xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
12%
8.46
8%
13.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.3 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cosenza vs Pisa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.24 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cosenza's recent record stands at 15W 20D 25L from 60 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 17W 22D 21L across 60 games — 1.22 PPG, with W-D-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Cosenza against 1.22 for Pisa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cosenza have managed 11W 10D 9L from their last 30 home games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 8W 12D 10L across their last 30 away games, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cosenza are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.22 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Pisa
Blended
Cosenza (Home) vs Pisa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cosenza
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Cosenza vs Pisa Form FAQs
What form are Cosenza and Pisa in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 15W 20D 25L in their last 60 games (1.08 PPG), while Pisa have gone 17W 22D 21L in their last 60 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Pisa away?
Cosenza's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.43 PPG; Pisa away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Pisa in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 29 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pisa won Cosenza 0-3 Pisa on 29 Mar 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cosenza have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Pisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cosenza
3
Draws
3
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Cosenza vs Pisa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Pisa?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Cosenza have won 2, Pisa have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Pisa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 March 2025: Cosenza 0-3 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Pisa see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 57%, Pisa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cosenza) and 37% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Cosenza keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Pisa in 37%; Pisa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cosenza vs Pisa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cosenza and Pisa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Cosenza's recent matches and 50% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cosenza and Pisa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cosenza's recent games and 37% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Pisa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Cosenza's recent matches and 53% of Pisa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cosenza and Pisa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 23, as Cosenza and Pisa drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.44 xG and Pisa 1.24 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 1.12 / defence 1.05 against Pisa attack 0.98 / defence 0.95, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 41% | Draw 27% | Pisa 32%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 37%, Pisa 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Pisa's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.08 PPG, Pisa 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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