Pisa 1-2 Spal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pisa at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Spal encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani plays host to Pisa versus Spal in Serie B, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Friday 19 May 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pisa have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Pisa have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Pisa are significantly better at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani than their overall form suggests.
Spal's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Spal's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Pisa 2W, Spal 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 0.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2022, ended 1–0 with Pisa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Pisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Spal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 52% versus Spal 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pisa 37% | Spal 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.32 xG and Spal 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.027 / defence 1.095 | Spal attack 0.852 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.029. Data: 75 Pisa games / 75 Spal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 43% | Draw 32% | Spal 25%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Spal 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pisa if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 0.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pisa 60% | Spal 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Spal | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Friday 19 May 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 43% | Draw 32% | Spal 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Pisa 1.32 / Spal 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.027 / def 1.095 | Spal attack 0.852 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.186 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Pisa (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Spal xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Spal kick off?
Pisa vs Spal kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 19 May 2023 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Spal?
Pisa 1 - 2 Spal.
Where is Pisa vs Spal being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Spal part of?
Pisa vs Spal is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Spal?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 43% chance of winning, Spal a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Spal?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Pisa and Spal will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Spal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Spal?
Record (3 meetings): Pisa 2W | Draws 1 | Spal 0W.
What form are Pisa and Spal in?
Pisa (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Spal (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Pisa's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Spal's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Spal's attack (0.85x) against Pisa's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
43%
2.33
32%
3.13
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.28
0.96
Spal xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
16%
6.09
7%
14.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.0 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Spal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Pisa and Spal expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Pisa and 0.96 for Spal, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Spal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 75 outings, Pisa have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 26W 27D 22L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Spal's form line: 16W 29D 30L from 75 games, 1.03 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Pisa against 1.03 for Spal. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Pisa have posted 1.65 PPG from 37 outings (16W 13D 8L).
On the road, Spal have gone 8W 14D 15L from 37 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pisa are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Spal are on 1.13 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Current Season
Spal
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Spal in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 26W 27D 22L in their last 75 games (1.40 PPG), while Spal have gone 16W 29D 30L in their last 75 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Spal away?
Pisa's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.65 PPG; Spal away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Pisa or Spal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Spal in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pisa have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Spal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Pisa
1
Draws
1
Spal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Spal?
From 4 meetings on record, Pisa have won 2, Spal have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Spal last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2023, when Pisa 1-2 Spal.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Spal?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 54%, Spal 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Pisa) and 38% (Spal).
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Spal in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Spal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Spal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Pisa's recent matches and 43% of Spal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Spal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Pisa's recent games and 38% of Spal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Spal tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Spal in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Spal defy the odds to beat Pisa 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spal beat Pisa 1-2 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.32 xG and Spal 0.96 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Spal outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.03 / defence 1.09 against Spal attack 0.85 / defence 1.08, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 43% | Draw 32% | Spal 25%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Spal win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 37%, Spal 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Spal's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.40 PPG, Spal 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spal win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Spal (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.