Reggina 1-0 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reggina at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggina vs Ascoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Ascoli travel to Stadio Oreste Granillo to take on Reggina. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 May 2023, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Reggina have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Reggina's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Oreste Granillo this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Ascoli — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ascoli's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Reggina 1.00 PPG, Ascoli 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Reggina have won 1, Ascoli 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2022, ended 1–0 with Reggina winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Reggina trading profile (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Ascoli trading profile (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggina 40% versus Ascoli 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggina 45% | Ascoli 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggina 1.23 xG and Ascoli 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggina attack 0.917 / defence 1.222 | Ascoli attack 0.948 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.029. Data: 75 Reggina games / 75 Ascoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggina 35% | Draw 32% | Ascoli 33%. Fair-value odds: Reggina 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Ascoli 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reggina are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reggina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Reggina 40% | Ascoli 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggina vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Oreste Granillo • Kick-off: Friday 19 May 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggina 35% | Draw 32% | Ascoli 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Reggina 1.23 / Ascoli 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Reggina attack 0.917 / def 1.222 | Ascoli attack 0.948 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.186 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Reggina (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Reggina xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Ascoli xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggina vs Ascoli kick off?
Reggina vs Ascoli kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 19 May 2023 at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What was the final score in Reggina vs Ascoli?
Reggina 1 - 0 Ascoli.
Where is Reggina vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What competition is Reggina vs Ascoli part of?
Reggina vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggina vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Reggina a 35% chance of winning, Ascoli a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Reggina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggina vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Reggina and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Reggina vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Ascoli?
Record (3 meetings): Reggina 1W | Draws 0 | Ascoli 2W.
What form are Reggina and Ascoli in?
Reggina (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Ascoli (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Reggina's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Ascoli's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Ascoli's attack versus Reggina's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggina Win
35%
2.85
32%
3.17
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Reggina xG
Total xG
2.42
1.19
Ascoli xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
11%
9.40
10%
10.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.6 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggina vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Reggina and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Reggina and 1.19 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggina vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Reggina's recent record stands at 29W 13D 33L from 75 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 30W 19D 26L across 75 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-D-W-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reggina on 1.33 PPG, Ascoli on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Reggina have managed 18W 4D 15L from 37 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ascoli's away record stands at 17W 7D 13L across 37 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Reggina are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.21 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggina
Current Season
Ascoli
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggina and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Reggina have gone 29W 13D 33L in their last 75 games (1.33 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 30W 19D 26L in their last 75 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggina at home or Ascoli away?
Reggina's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggina at home: 1.57 PPG; Ascoli away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Reggina have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Reggina's record when hosting Ascoli specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Reggina
0
Draws
2
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Ascoli?
From 4 meetings on record, Reggina have won 2, Ascoli have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reggina and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2023, when Reggina 1-0 Ascoli.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggina 38%, Ascoli 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Reggina) and 40% (Ascoli).
On the defensive side: Reggina keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Reggina have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggina home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggina play Ascoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Reggina's recent matches and 51% of Ascoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggina vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Reggina's recent games and 40% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggina and Ascoli tend to score early?
Reggina have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Reggina edge out Ascoli 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggina beat Ascoli 1-0 at Stadio Oreste Granillo, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggina 1.23 xG and Ascoli 1.19 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ascoli landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggina attack 0.92 / defence 1.22 against Ascoli attack 0.95 / defence 1.13, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggina 35% | Draw 32% | Ascoli 33%, with Reggina to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggina 45%, Ascoli 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggina's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Ascoli's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggina 1.33 PPG, Ascoli 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggina win broke the near-deadlock. Reggina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Ascoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.