Ternana 2-3 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Frosinone at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ternana vs Frosinone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Libero Liberati plays host to Ternana versus Frosinone in Serie B, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Friday 19 May 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Ternana's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadio Libero Liberati, Ternana have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Ternana are significantly better at Stadio Libero Liberati than their overall form suggests.
Frosinone have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Frosinone away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Frosinone are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Ternana 0W, Frosinone 1W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2022, ended 0–3 with Frosinone winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Ternana half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Frosinone half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 56% versus Frosinone 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 52% | Frosinone 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 0.82 xG and Frosinone 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.940 / defence 1.235 | Frosinone attack 1.168 / defence 0.732. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.029. Frosinone's defence strength of 0.732 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 75 Ternana games / 75 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 19% | Draw 30% | Frosinone 51%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 5.26 | Draw 3.33 | Frosinone 1.96. Frosinone hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Frosinone are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Frosinone if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ternana 60% | Frosinone 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Friday 19 May 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 19% | Draw 30% | Frosinone 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Ternana 0.82 / Frosinone 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.940 / def 1.235 | Frosinone attack 1.168 / def 0.732 | league avg home 1.186 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Frosinone xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Frosinone kick off?
Ternana vs Frosinone kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 19 May 2023 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Frosinone?
Ternana 2 - 3 Frosinone.
Where is Ternana vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Frosinone part of?
Ternana vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 19% chance of winning, Frosinone a 51% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Ternana and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Frosinone?
Record (3 meetings): Ternana 0W | Draws 2 | Frosinone 1W.
What form are Ternana and Frosinone in?
Ternana (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Frosinone (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ternana's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Frosinone's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. Flip it around — Frosinone's attack (1.17x) against Ternana's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
19%
5.33
30%
3.32
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.30
1.48
Frosinone xG
5.33
19%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
4%
23.52
23%
4.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 14.9 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Ternana and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Ternana and 1.48 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ternana come into this having played 75 games, going 26W 19D 30L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Frosinone sit at 1.80 PPG from 75 outings (38W 21D 16L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Frosinone carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Ternana — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Ternana's home form reads 17W 7D 13L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Frosinone have taken 1.46 points per game from 37 outings (14W 12D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Ternana are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.57 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Current Season
Frosinone
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 26W 19D 30L in their last 75 games (1.29 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 38W 21D 16L in their last 75 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Frosinone away?
Ternana's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.57 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Ternana or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Frosinone in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Frosinone go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Frosinone won 3-0 on 26 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ternana have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Frosinone — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ternana
2
Draws
2
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Frosinone?
From 4 meetings on record, Ternana have won 0, Frosinone have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2023, when Ternana 2-3 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 43%, Frosinone 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Ternana) and 40% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Frosinone in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Frosinone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Ternana's recent matches and 49% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Ternana's recent games and 40% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Frosinone tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Frosinone edge out Ternana 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Ternana 2-3 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 0.82 xG and Frosinone 1.48 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Ternana beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Frosinone outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.94 / defence 1.24 against Frosinone attack 1.17 / defence 0.73, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 19% | Draw 30% | Frosinone 51%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 52%, Frosinone 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Frosinone's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.29. That form edge translated into the three points. Ternana (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.