Brescia 1-1 Pisa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Pisa at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brescia vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 37 as Brescia welcome Pisa to Stadio Mario Rigamonti. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 May 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Brescia have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Brescia's home record at Stadio Mario Rigamonti: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Mario Rigamonti this season.
Pisa — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Pisa's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Brescia carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Brescia, 2 for Pisa and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 17 Dec 2022, ended 0–3 with Pisa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Brescia trading profile (77 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Pisa trading profile (77 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 52% versus Pisa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brescia 36% | Pisa 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 0.90 xG and Pisa 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 0.801 / defence 1.179 | Pisa attack 0.906 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.022. Data: 74 Brescia games / 74 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 28% | Draw 35% | Pisa 38%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 3.57 | Draw 2.86 | Pisa 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Pisa lead the H2H ledger, but Brescia carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Brescia (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Brescia 40% | Pisa 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 28% | Draw 35% | Pisa 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Brescia 0.90 / Pisa 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 0.801 / def 1.179 | Pisa attack 0.906 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.022 • Poisson stance: Pisa (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Pisa xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Pisa kick off?
Brescia vs Pisa kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Pisa?
Brescia 1 - 1 Pisa.
Where is Brescia vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Pisa part of?
Brescia vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 28% chance of winning, Pisa a 38% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Brescia and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Pisa?
Record (3 meetings): Brescia 0W | Draws 1 | Pisa 2W.
What form are Brescia and Pisa in?
Brescia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Pisa (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Brescia's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Pisa's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Brescia's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
28%
3.60
35%
2.89
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Brescia xG
Total xG
1.99
1.09
Pisa xG
3.60
28%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
9%
10.73
15%
6.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 14.9 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Brescia and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Brescia and 1.09 for Pisa, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Brescia's recent record stands at 27W 26D 24L from 77 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 29W 26D 22L across 77 games — 1.47 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brescia on 1.39 PPG, Pisa on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Brescia have managed 15W 13D 11L from 39 games — 1.49 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 12W 13D 14L across 39 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Brescia are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.27 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Pisa in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 77 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Current Season
Pisa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Pisa in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 27W 26D 24L in their last 77 games (1.39 PPG), while Pisa have gone 29W 26D 22L in their last 77 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Pisa away?
Brescia's home record (1.49 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.49 PPG; Pisa away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Brescia or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Pisa in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Pisa have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Dec 2022, when Pisa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Brescia's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Brescia
3
Draws
4
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Pisa?
From 8 meetings on record, Brescia have won 1, Pisa have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Brescia 1-2 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 54%, Pisa 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Brescia and 36% for Pisa.
On the defensive side: Pisa in 31%; Pisa in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Brescia's recent matches and 51% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brescia vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Brescia's recent games and 36% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Pisa tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Pisa in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brescia and Pisa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 37, as Brescia and Pisa drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 0.90 xG and Pisa 1.09 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 0.80 / defence 1.18 against Pisa attack 0.91 / defence 0.96, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 28% | Draw 35% | Pisa 38%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 36%, Pisa 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (77 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Pisa's trading profile (77 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.39 PPG, Pisa 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.