Cosenza 0-1 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cosenza vs Cagliari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 38 as Cosenza welcome Cagliari to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla. Kick-off is set for Friday 19 May 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cosenza have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Cosenza's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cagliari stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cagliari have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Cagliari are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Cosenza, 1 for Cagliari and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2022, ended 0–2 with Cagliari winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Cosenza in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Cagliari in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 52% versus Cagliari 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 39% | Cagliari 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 0.93 xG and Cagliari 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.891 / defence 0.882 | Cagliari attack 1.160 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.029. Data: 75 Cosenza games / 37 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 29% | Draw 35% | Cagliari 36%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 3.45 | Draw 2.86 | Cagliari 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cagliari are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cagliari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 50% | Cagliari 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Friday 19 May 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 29% | Draw 35% | Cagliari 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG Cosenza 0.93 / Cagliari 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.891 / def 0.882 | Cagliari attack 1.160 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.186 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Cagliari xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Cagliari kick off?
Cosenza vs Cagliari kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 19 May 2023 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Cagliari?
Cosenza 0 - 1 Cagliari.
Where is Cosenza vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Cagliari part of?
Cosenza vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 29% chance of winning, Cagliari a 36% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Cosenza and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Cagliari?
Record (1 meetings): Cosenza 0W | Draws 0 | Cagliari 1W.
What form are Cosenza and Cagliari in?
Cosenza (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Cagliari (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cosenza's attack rating (0.89) and Cagliari's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cagliari's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
29%
3.42
35%
2.85
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Cosenza xG
Total xG
1.98
1.05
Cagliari xG
3.42
29%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
10%
9.80
14%
7.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 14.5 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.05 for Cagliari, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 75 outings, Cosenza have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 18W 24D 33L record — D-D-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Cagliari's form line: 20W 27D 28L from 75 games, 1.16 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cosenza on 1.04 PPG, Cagliari on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cosenza have posted 1.49 PPG from 37 outings (15W 10D 12L). That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Cosenza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cagliari have gone 6W 15D 16L from 37 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cosenza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cosenza are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.11 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Current Season
Cagliari
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 18W 24D 33L in their last 75 games (1.04 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 20W 27D 28L in their last 75 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Cagliari away?
Cosenza's home record (1.49 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.49 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cosenza and Cagliari runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cosenza
0
Draws
2
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Cagliari?
From 2 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 0, Cagliari have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2023, when Cosenza 0-1 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Cagliari?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 51%, Cagliari 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Cosenza) and 43% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Cosenza keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cosenza have failed to score in 27% of games; Cagliari in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Cosenza's recent matches and 46% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Cosenza's recent games and 43% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Cagliari tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cagliari edge out Cosenza 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Cosenza 0-1 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 0.93 xG and Cagliari 1.05 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cosenza fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.89 / defence 0.88 against Cagliari attack 1.16 / defence 0.88, drawn from 75/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 29% | Draw 35% | Cagliari 36%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 39%, Cagliari 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cagliari's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.04 PPG, Cagliari 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cagliari win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Cagliari (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.