Sampdoria 0-2 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sampdoria face Pisa.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Sampdoria welcome Pisa to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie B (matchday 2). Kick-off is Friday 25 August 2023 at 20:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Sampdoria have gone 1W 4D 5L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sampdoria's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pisa — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Pisa's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sampdoria 0.70 PPG, Pisa 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (last 38 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Pisa in-play and half-time data (last 38 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 44% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 45% versus Pisa 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 45% | Pisa 45%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sampdoria surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Pisa have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.05 xG and Pisa 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.872 / defence 1.150 | Pisa attack 0.975 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 0.994. Data: built from Sampdoria's last 1 games and Pisa's last 38. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 31% | Draw 34% | Pisa 35%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 3.18 | Draw 2.98 | Pisa 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pisa at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sampdoria's last 10 home games and Pisa's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sampdoria 60% (last 10 home games) | Pisa 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Sampdoria 1 games, Pisa 38) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, matchday 2 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Friday 25 August 2023 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 31% | Draw 34% | Pisa 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Sampdoria 1.05 / Pisa 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.872 / def 1.150 | Pisa attack 0.975 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.256 / away 0.994 • Poisson stance: Pisa (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Pisa xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sampdoria vs Pisa FAQs
What time does Sampdoria vs Pisa kick off?
Sampdoria vs Pisa kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Friday 25 August 2023 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Pisa?
Sampdoria 0 - 2 Pisa.
Where is Sampdoria vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Pisa part of?
Sampdoria vs Pisa is a Serie B fixture (matchday 2) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 31% chance of winning, Pisa a 35% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sampdoria and Pisa will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Sampdoria vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sampdoria's attack rating (0.87) and Pisa's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sampdoria's last 1 games and Pisa's last 38, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
31%
3.18
34%
2.98
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.16
1.11
Pisa xG
3.18
31%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
10%
9.70
12%
8.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 12.8 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sampdoria vs Pisa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.11 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sampdoria come into this having played 38 games, going 4W 10D 24L for 0.58 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Pisa sit at 1.24 PPG from 38 outings (11W 14D 13L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five.
Pisa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sampdoria's home form reads 1W 7D 10L across their last 18 home games, a 0.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Pisa have taken 1.17 points per game from their last 18 away games (4W 9D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sampdoria are averaging 0.68 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.26 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Early Season
Pisa
Pre-Season
Sampdoria (Home) vs Pisa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sampdoria
Early Season
Pisa
Pre-Season
❓ Sampdoria vs Pisa Form FAQs
What form are Sampdoria and Pisa in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 4W 10D 24L in their last 38 games (0.58 PPG), while Pisa have gone 11W 14D 13L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Pisa away?
Pisa's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 0.56 PPG; Pisa away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Sampdoria or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sampdoria have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Pisa in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 29 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Pisa have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Nov 2024, when Pisa won Pisa 3-0 Sampdoria.
Sampdoria's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sampdoria
0
Draws
4
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Sampdoria vs Pisa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Pisa?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Sampdoria have won 0, Pisa have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Pisa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 December 2024: Sampdoria 0-1 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Pisa see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 44%, Pisa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Sampdoria and 33% for Pisa.
On the defensive side: Pisa in 39%; Sampdoria have failed to score in 56% of games; Pisa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sampdoria vs Pisa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sampdoria and Pisa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 50% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sampdoria and Pisa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Sampdoria's recent games and 33% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Pisa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 44% of Pisa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sampdoria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Sampdoria 0-2 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.05 xG and Pisa 1.11 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sampdoria fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Pisa outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Pisa attack 0.97 / defence 0.95, drawn from 1/38 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 31% | Draw 34% | Pisa 35%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 45%, Pisa 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pisa's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.58. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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