Como 2-2 Genoa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Como at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Como vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Como and Genoa meet at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Monday 10 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Como's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Genoa (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Genoa's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Genoa are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Como 0W, Genoa 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Como — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games).
Genoa — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Como 56% versus Genoa 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Como 35% | Genoa 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 1.34 xG and Genoa 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 1.181 / defence 0.936 | Genoa attack 1.048 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.006. Data: 69 Como games / 31 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Como 44% | Draw 30% | Genoa 27%. Fair-value odds: Como 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Genoa 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Como at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Genoa (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Como if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Como 40% | Genoa 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Genoa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 44% | Draw 30% | Genoa 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Como 1.34 / Genoa 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 1.181 / def 0.936 | Genoa attack 1.048 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.006 • Poisson stance: Como (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Como xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Genoa xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Como vs Genoa kick off?
Como vs Genoa kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 10 April 2023 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs Genoa?
Como 2 - 2 Genoa.
Where is Como vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Genoa part of?
Como vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Como a 44% chance of winning, Genoa a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Como and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Como vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Genoa?
Record (1 meetings): Como 0W | Draws 1 | Genoa 0W.
What form are Como and Genoa in?
Como (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Genoa (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Como's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (1.05x) against Como's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 69/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
44%
2.29
30%
3.38
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Como xG
Total xG
2.32
0.99
Genoa xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
7%
14.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.9 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Como and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Como and 0.99 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Como come into this having played 69 games, going 20W 26D 23L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Genoa sit at 1.28 PPG from 69 outings (21W 25D 23L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Como against 1.28 for Genoa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Como's home form reads 12W 11D 11L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Genoa have taken 1.12 points per game from 34 outings (9W 11D 14L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Como are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 0.97 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Current Season
Genoa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Como and Genoa in coming into this match?
Como have gone 20W 26D 23L in their last 69 games (1.25 PPG), while Genoa have gone 21W 25D 23L in their last 69 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Como at home or Genoa away?
Como's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Como at home: 1.38 PPG; Genoa away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Como or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Como have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Genoa in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Como have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Como
4
Draws
0
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Genoa?
From 6 meetings on record, Como have won 2, Genoa have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Como and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Genoa 0-2 Como.
Who has won more matches between Como and Genoa?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Como 50%, Genoa 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Como) and 47% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Como have failed to score in 26% of games; Genoa in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Como play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Como's recent matches and 44% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Como vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Como's recent games and 47% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Como and Genoa tend to score early?
Como have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Genoa in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Como and Genoa share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Como and Genoa finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 1.34 xG and Genoa 0.99 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Genoa outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 1.18 / defence 0.94 against Genoa attack 1.05 / defence 0.97, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Como 44% | Draw 30% | Genoa 27%, with Como to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 35%, Genoa 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Como's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Genoa's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Como 1.25 PPG, Genoa 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Como (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.