Cosenza 1-0 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Cosenza take on Pisa.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla plays host to Cosenza versus Pisa in Serie B, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Saturday 1 April 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cosenza have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Cosenza at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
Pisa's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 3W 6D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Cosenza, 1.60 for Pisa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Cosenza 0W, Pisa 2W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 1–3 with Pisa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Cosenza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Pisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 51% versus Pisa 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cosenza 41% | Pisa 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 0.79 xG and Pisa 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.901 / defence 0.919 | Pisa attack 0.983 / defence 0.764. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 0.968. Pisa's defence strength of 0.764 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 68 Cosenza games / 68 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 30% | Draw 35% | Pisa 35%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 3.33 | Draw 2.86 | Pisa 2.86. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.66. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.66 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Cosenza's lower xG of 0.79 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 23% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 50% | Pisa 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 30% | Draw 35% | Pisa 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 32% | xG Cosenza 0.79 / Pisa 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.901 / def 0.919 | Pisa attack 0.983 / def 0.764 | league avg home 1.143 / away 0.968 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Pisa xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Pisa kick off?
Cosenza vs Pisa kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Pisa?
Cosenza 1 - 0 Pisa.
Where is Cosenza vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Pisa part of?
Cosenza vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 30% chance of winning, Pisa a 35% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Cosenza and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Pisa?
Record (3 meetings): Cosenza 0W | Draws 1 | Pisa 2W.
What form are Cosenza and Pisa in?
Cosenza (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Pisa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cosenza's attack at 0.90x the league average against Pisa's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 0.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (0.98x) against Cosenza's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.33
35%
2.86
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.6%
Away win
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Cosenza xG
Total xG
1.66
0.88
Pisa xG
3.33
30%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.12
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
46%
2.20
Win to Nil
13%
7.99
16%
6.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.0 | 16.6 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.1 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.7%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Cosenza and 0.88 for Pisa, a combined total of 1.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cosenza's recent record stands at 17W 19D 34L from 70 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 28W 25D 17L across 70 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pisa by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cosenza heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cosenza have managed 15W 8D 12L from 35 games — 1.51 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Cosenza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Pisa's away record stands at 11W 13D 11L across 35 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cosenza are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.31 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Defensively: Pisa in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Current Season
Pisa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Pisa in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 17W 19D 34L in their last 70 games (1.00 PPG), while Pisa have gone 28W 25D 17L in their last 70 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Pisa away?
Cosenza's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.51 PPG; Pisa away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Pisa in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pisa won 0-3 on 29 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cosenza have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Pisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cosenza
3
Draws
3
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Pisa?
From 8 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 2, Pisa have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Cosenza 0-3 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 51%, Pisa 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Cosenza) and 31% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Cosenza keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Pisa in 34%; Cosenza have failed to score in 29% of games; Pisa in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Cosenza's recent matches and 49% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Cosenza's recent games and 31% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Pisa tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Pisa in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cosenza defy the odds to beat Pisa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Pisa 1-0 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 0.79 xG and Pisa 0.88 xG, a combined 1.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pisa landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.90 / defence 0.92 against Pisa attack 0.98 / defence 0.76, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 30% | Draw 35% | Pisa 35%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Cosenza win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 50% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 41%, Pisa 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Pisa's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Cosenza winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.