Cosenza 0-1 Spal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cosenza vs Spal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Spal make the trip to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla to face Cosenza in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 November 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cosenza's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla this season: 4W 1D 1L from 6 home games — 2.17 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.17 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Cosenza are significantly better at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla than their overall form suggests.
Spal (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Spal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spal away from home this season: 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Cosenza — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Spal — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 54% versus Spal 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 38% | Spal 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.01 xG and Spal 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 1.027 / defence 0.923 | Spal attack 0.647 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.009 / away 1.176. Data: 13 Cosenza games / 13 Spal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 41% | Draw 35% | Spal 24%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.44 | Draw 2.86 | Spal 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.72. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.72 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Spal's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cosenza are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cosenza if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.72 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 50% | Spal 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Spal | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 41% | Draw 35% | Spal 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 33% | xG Cosenza 1.01 / Spal 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 1.027 / def 0.923 | Spal attack 0.647 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.009 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Spal xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Spal kick off?
Cosenza vs Spal kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Spal?
Cosenza 0 - 1 Spal.
Where is Cosenza vs Spal being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Spal part of?
Cosenza vs Spal is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Spal?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 41% chance of winning, Spal a 24% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Spal?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Cosenza and Spal will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Spal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Spal?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cosenza and Spal in?
Cosenza (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Spal (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cosenza's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Spal's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — Spal's attack (0.65x) against Cosenza's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
41%
2.43
35%
2.86
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Cosenza xG
Total xG
1.72
0.70
Spal xG
2.43
41%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.03
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
9%
11.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.0 | 12.6 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.2 | 12.8 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Spal?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.6%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Spal expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Cosenza and 0.70 for Spal, a combined total of 1.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Spal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cosenza come into this having played 13 games, going 4W 3D 6L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Spal sit at 1.08 PPG from 13 outings (3W 5D 5L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Spal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Cosenza against 1.08 for Spal. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Cosenza's home form reads 4W 1D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Cosenza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Spal have taken 0.83 points per game from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cosenza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cosenza are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Spal are on 1.38 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Spal in 62%.
Last 13 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Spal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Spal in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 games (1.15 PPG), while Spal have gone 3W 5D 5L in their last 13 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Spal away?
Cosenza's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 2.17 PPG; Spal away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Spal won 5-0 on 22 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cosenza have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Spal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cosenza
1
Draws
2
Spal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Spal?
From 4 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 1, Spal have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Spal last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2023, when Cosenza 1-0 Spal.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Spal?
Spal have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 50%, Spal 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Cosenza and 17% for Spal.
On the defensive side: Cosenza keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Spal in 33%; Spal in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Spal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Spal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cosenza's recent matches and 33% of Spal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Spal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cosenza's recent games and 17% of Spal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Spal tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Spal in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Spal defy the odds to beat Cosenza 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spal beat Cosenza 0-1 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.01 xG and Spal 0.70 xG, a combined 1.72. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cosenza fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 1.03 / defence 0.92 against Spal attack 0.65 / defence 0.98, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 41% | Draw 35% | Spal 24%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Spal win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 52% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 38%, Spal 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Spal's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.15 PPG, Spal 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spal win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Spal (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.