Frosinone 2-2 Pordenone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Frosinone at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Frosinone vs Pordenone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Frosinone and Pordenone meet at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 November 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Frosinone (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Frosinone have posted 2W 4D 1L at Stadio Benito Stirpe — 1.43 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pordenone have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pordenone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pordenone have gone 0W 1D 5L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.17 PPG). Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Frosinone's 1.70 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Pordenone's 0.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Frosinone goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Pordenone goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 54% versus Pordenone 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 38% | Pordenone 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.22 xG and Pordenone 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 0.910 / defence 1.028 | Pordenone attack 0.569 / defence 1.332. League average goals — home 1.009 / away 1.176. Pordenone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.332 — this is suppressing Frosinone's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Frosinone games / 13 Pordenone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 48% | Draw 32% | Pordenone 20%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 2.08 | Draw 3.12 | Pordenone 5.00. Frosinone hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Frosinone are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Frosinone if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates are neutral: Frosinone 57% | Pordenone 33%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Pordenone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 48% | Draw 32% | Pordenone 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 36% | xG Frosinone 1.22 / Pordenone 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 0.910 / def 1.028 | Pordenone attack 0.569 / def 1.332 | league avg home 1.009 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Pordenone xG
36%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Pordenone kick off?
Frosinone vs Pordenone kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Pordenone?
Frosinone 2 - 2 Pordenone.
Where is Frosinone vs Pordenone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Pordenone part of?
Frosinone vs Pordenone is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Pordenone?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 48% chance of winning, Pordenone a 20% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Pordenone?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Frosinone and Pordenone will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Pordenone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Pordenone?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Frosinone and Pordenone in?
Frosinone (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Pordenone (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Frosinone's attack rating (0.91) and Pordenone's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pordenone's attack (0.57x) against Frosinone's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.4%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
48%
2.08
32%
3.15
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Frosinone xG
Total xG
1.91
0.69
Pordenone xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
24%
4.13
6%
16.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 10.2 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.1 | 12.4 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 7.6 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Pordenone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Pordenone expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Frosinone and 0.69 for Pordenone, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Pordenone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 13 outings, Frosinone have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 5W 7D 1L record — W-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pordenone's form line: 0W 3D 10L from 13 games, 0.23 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Pordenone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Frosinone are the form team by 1.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pordenone.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Frosinone have posted 1.50 PPG from 6 outings (2W 3D 1L).
On the road, Pordenone have gone 0W 1D 5L from 6 away games — 0.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Frosinone are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Pordenone are on 0.62 scored and 2.15 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Blended
Pordenone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Pordenone in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 5W 7D 1L in their last 13 games (1.69 PPG), while Pordenone have gone 0W 3D 10L in their last 13 (0.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Pordenone away?
Frosinone's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 1.50 PPG; Pordenone away: 0.17 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Pordenone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Pordenone in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Frosinone
1
Draws
1
Pordenone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Pordenone?
From 2 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 0, Pordenone have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Pordenone last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2022, when Pordenone 2-0 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Pordenone?
Pordenone have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Frosinone see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Pordenone see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 50%, Pordenone 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Frosinone) and 33% (Pordenone).
On the defensive side: Frosinone keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Frosinone have failed to score in 50% of games; Pordenone in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Pordenone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Pordenone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Frosinone's recent matches and 33% of Pordenone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Frosinone vs Pordenone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Frosinone's recent games and 33% of Pordenone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Frosinone and Pordenone share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone and Pordenone finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.22 xG and Pordenone 0.69 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Pordenone outscored their 0.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 0.91 / defence 1.03 against Pordenone attack 0.57 / defence 1.33, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 48% | Draw 32% | Pordenone 20%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 38%, Pordenone 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Pordenone's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pordenone (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.