Brescia 0-1 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brescia vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 14 as Brescia welcome Pisa to Stadio Mario Rigamonti. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 November 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Brescia have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brescia's home record at Stadio Mario Rigamonti: 3W 2D 1L from 6 Serie B appearances (1.83 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pisa — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's away record: 2W 2D 2L from 6 road trips in Serie B this season (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Brescia) versus 1.60 (Pisa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Brescia register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Pisa in 83% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Brescia trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Pisa trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brescia 62% and Pisa 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brescia 54% | Pisa 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.47 xG and Pisa 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 1.114 / defence 1.214 | Pisa attack 0.948 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.027 / away 1.171. Pisa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.284 — this is suppressing Brescia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Brescia games / 13 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 40% | Draw 26% | Pisa 34%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Pisa 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brescia are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brescia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Brescia 67% | Pisa 83% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 40% | Draw 26% | Pisa 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Brescia 1.47 / Pisa 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 1.114 / def 1.214 | Pisa attack 0.948 / def 1.284 | league avg home 1.027 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Brescia (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Pisa xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Pisa kick off?
Brescia vs Pisa kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Pisa?
Brescia 0 - 1 Pisa.
Where is Brescia vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Pisa part of?
Brescia vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 40% chance of winning, Pisa a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Brescia and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Pisa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Brescia and Pisa in?
Brescia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Pisa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Brescia's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Pisa's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Brescia's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
40%
2.52
26%
3.85
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.82
1.35
Pisa xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
10%
9.67
8%
12.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.8 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Brescia and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Brescia and 1.35 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Brescia's recent record stands at 8W 3D 2L from 13 games, a 2.08 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 2L across 13 games — 1.92 PPG, with D-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brescia on 2.08 PPG, Pisa on 1.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Brescia have managed 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 2W 2D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pisa's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brescia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Brescia are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.54 scored and 0.85 conceded. Brescia's scoring rate against Pisa's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Brescia have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Pisa in 62%.
Last 13 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Pisa in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 8W 3D 2L in their last 13 games (2.08 PPG), while Pisa have gone 7W 4D 2L in their last 13 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Pisa away?
Brescia's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.83 PPG; Pisa away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Brescia or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Pisa in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Pisa have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Dec 2022, when Pisa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Brescia's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Brescia
3
Draws
4
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Pisa?
From 8 meetings on record, Brescia have won 1, Pisa have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Brescia 1-2 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Brescia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Brescia at 67%, Pisa at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Brescia) and 50% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Brescia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Brescia's games and 83% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brescia vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Brescia's recent games and 50% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Pisa tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Pisa in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pisa defy the odds to beat Brescia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Brescia 0-1 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.47 xG and Pisa 1.35 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Brescia fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 1.11 / defence 1.21 against Pisa attack 0.95 / defence 1.28, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 40% | Draw 26% | Pisa 34%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Pisa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 54%, Pisa 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Pisa's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 2.08 PPG, Pisa 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Pisa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.