Alessandria 1-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cremonese at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alessandria vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Alessandria and Cremonese meet at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 November 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Alessandria's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Alessandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alessandria at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta this season: 2W 1D 3L from 6 home games — 1.17 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Cremonese (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese away from home this season: 3W 1D 2L from 6 away games — 1.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Cremonese arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Alessandria — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Cremonese — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alessandria 54% versus Cremonese 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alessandria 38% | Cremonese 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alessandria 0.87 xG and Cremonese 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alessandria attack 0.749 / defence 1.193 | Cremonese attack 0.868 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.009 / away 1.176. Alessandria's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Alessandria games / 13 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alessandria 25% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 43%. Fair-value odds: Alessandria 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | Cremonese 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cremonese at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Alessandria 50% | Cremonese 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alessandria vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alessandria 25% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Alessandria 0.87 / Cremonese 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Alessandria attack 0.749 / def 1.193 | Cremonese attack 0.868 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.009 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Alessandria xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Cremonese xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alessandria vs Cremonese kick off?
Alessandria vs Cremonese kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
What was the final score in Alessandria vs Cremonese?
Alessandria 1 - 0 Cremonese.
Where is Alessandria vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
What competition is Alessandria vs Cremonese part of?
Alessandria vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Alessandria vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Alessandria a 25% chance of winning, Cremonese a 43% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alessandria vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Alessandria and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Alessandria vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alessandria and Cremonese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alessandria and Cremonese in?
Alessandria (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Cremonese (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Alessandria's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Cremonese's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (0.87x) against Alessandria's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
25%
3.94
31%
3.21
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Alessandria xG
Total xG
2.08
1.22
Cremonese xG
3.94
25%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
8%
13.30
18%
5.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 15.2 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alessandria vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Alessandria and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Alessandria and 1.22 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Alessandria vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alessandria come into this having played 13 games, going 3W 2D 8L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W. The sample for Alessandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cremonese sit at 1.69 PPG from 13 outings (6W 4D 3L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.84 PPG clear of Alessandria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Alessandria's home form reads 2W 1D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Cremonese have taken 1.67 points per game from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alessandria are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.31 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Last 13 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alessandria
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alessandria and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Alessandria have gone 3W 2D 8L in their last 13 games (0.85 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 6W 4D 3L in their last 13 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alessandria at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alessandria at home: 1.17 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Alessandria or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alessandria have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Cremonese in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Alessandria
0
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alessandria and Cremonese?
From 2 meetings on record, Alessandria have won 1, Cremonese have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alessandria and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2022, when Cremonese 2-1 Alessandria.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alessandria see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alessandria 50%, Cremonese 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Alessandria) and 50% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Alessandria keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cremonese in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alessandria home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alessandria play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Alessandria's recent matches and 50% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alessandria vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Alessandria's recent games and 50% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alessandria and Cremonese tend to score early?
Alessandria have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Alessandria defy the odds to beat Cremonese 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alessandria beat Cremonese 1-0 at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alessandria 0.87 xG and Cremonese 1.22 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cremonese landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alessandria attack 0.75 / defence 1.19 against Cremonese attack 0.87 / defence 1.15, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alessandria 25% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 43%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Alessandria win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alessandria 38%, Cremonese 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alessandria's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Cremonese's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with Alessandria winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Alessandria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.