Spal 1-3 Lecce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lecce at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spal vs Lecce encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lecce make the trip to Stadio Paolo Mazza to face Spal in Serie B, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Tuesday 30 November 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Spal (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Spal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spal's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 2L across 7 games at Stadio Paolo Mazza this term (1.29 PPG). They are averaging 2.14 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lecce's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 5D 0L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lecce have gone 2W 4D 1L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.43 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.43 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Lecce are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Spal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Lecce goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spal 57% versus Lecce 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spal 43% | Lecce 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spal 1.17 xG and Lecce 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spal attack 1.215 / defence 1.421 | Lecce attack 0.771 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.000 / away 1.155. Data: 14 Spal games / 14 Lecce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spal 33% | Draw 29% | Lecce 38%. Fair-value odds: Spal 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Lecce 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lecce as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lecce if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Spal 86% | Lecce 43% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spal vs Lecce | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Paolo Mazza • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Nov 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spal 33% | Draw 29% | Lecce 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Spal 1.17 / Lecce 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Spal attack 1.215 / def 1.421 | Lecce attack 0.771 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.000 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Lecce (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Spal xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Lecce xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spal vs Lecce kick off?
Spal vs Lecce kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 30 November 2021 at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What was the final score in Spal vs Lecce?
Spal 1 - 3 Lecce.
Where is Spal vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What competition is Spal vs Lecce part of?
Spal vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spal vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Spal a 33% chance of winning, Lecce a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lecce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spal vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Spal and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will Spal vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Lecce?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Spal and Lecce in?
Spal (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Lecce (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Spal's attack rating (1.22) and Lecce's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lecce's attack (0.77x) against Spal's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lecce Win
33%
3.04
29%
3.39
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Spal xG
Total xG
2.43
1.26
Lecce xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
9%
10.77
12%
8.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.1 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spal vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Spal and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Spal and 1.26 for Lecce, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Spal vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Spal come into this having played 14 games, going 4W 5D 5L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W. The sample for Spal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lecce sit at 1.79 PPG from 14 outings (6W 7D 1L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lecce carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Spal — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Spal's home form reads 2W 3D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Lecce have taken 1.43 points per game from 7 outings (2W 4D 1L).
Attack vs Defence
Spal are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 1.71 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Lecce in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spal
Blended
Lecce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spal and Lecce in coming into this match?
Spal have gone 4W 5D 5L in their last 14 games (1.21 PPG), while Lecce have gone 6W 7D 1L in their last 14 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spal at home or Lecce away?
Lecce's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spal at home: 1.29 PPG; Lecce away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Spal or Lecce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spal have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Lecce in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Spal
0
Draws
2
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Lecce?
From 2 meetings on record, Spal have won 0, Lecce have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Spal and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2022, when Lecce 1-0 Spal.
Who has won more matches between Spal and Lecce?
Lecce have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Lecce see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spal 86%, Lecce 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Spal) and 43% (Lecce). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lecce in 43%; Lecce in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spal home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spal play Lecce?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Spal's games and 43% of Lecce's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spal vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Spal's matches and 43% of Lecce's.
Do Spal and Lecce tend to score early?
Spal have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lecce in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lecce cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Spal.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce beat Spal 1-3 at Stadio Paolo Mazza, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spal 1.17 xG and Lecce 1.26 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lecce outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spal attack 1.22 / defence 1.42 against Lecce attack 0.77 / defence 0.96, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spal 33% | Draw 29% | Lecce 38%, with Lecce to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spal 43%, Lecce 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spal's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Lecce's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lecce arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Spal (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lecce (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.