Modena 0-0 Spal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Spal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Alberto Braglia plays host to Modena versus Spal in Serie B, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Saturday 22 April 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Modena have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Modena's home record at Stadio Alberto Braglia: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Spal (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Spal's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Modena, 0 for Spal and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2022, ended 3–2 with Modena winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Modena — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Spal — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 54% versus Spal 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 46% | Spal 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.21 xG and Spal 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.915 / defence 0.993 | Spal attack 0.915 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.145 / away 0.977. Data: 33 Modena games / 71 Spal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 43% | Draw 31% | Spal 26%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Spal 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Modena 50% | Spal 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Spal | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 43% | Draw 31% | Spal 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Modena 1.21 / Spal 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.915 / def 0.993 | Spal attack 0.915 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.145 / away 0.977 • Poisson stance: Modena (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Spal xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Spal kick off?
Modena vs Spal kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Spal?
Modena 0 - 0 Spal.
Where is Modena vs Spal being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Spal part of?
Modena vs Spal is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Spal?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 43% chance of winning, Spal a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Spal?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Modena and Spal will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Spal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Spal?
Record (1 meetings): Modena 1W | Draws 0 | Spal 0W.
What form are Modena and Spal in?
Modena (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Spal (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Modena's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Spal's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Spal's attack (0.92x) against Modena's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 33/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
43%
2.34
31%
3.23
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Modena xG
Total xG
2.10
0.89
Spal xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
8%
12.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 10.9 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.2 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Spal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Modena and Spal expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Modena and 0.89 for Spal, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Spal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 33 outings, Modena have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 12W 7D 14L record — W-L-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Spal's form line: 7W 12D 14L from 33 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Modena against 1.00 for Spal. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Modena have posted 1.50 PPG from 16 outings (6W 6D 4L).
On the road, Spal have gone 3W 6D 7L from 16 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Modena are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Spal are on 1.12 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Current Season
Spal
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Spal in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 12W 7D 14L in their last 33 games (1.30 PPG), while Spal have gone 7W 12D 14L in their last 33 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Spal away?
Modena's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.50 PPG; Spal away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Modena
1
Draws
0
Spal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Spal?
From 2 meetings on record, Modena have won 1, Spal have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Spal last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Modena 0-0 Spal.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Spal?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Spal see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 50%, Spal 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Modena and 38% for Spal.
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Spal in 31%; Spal in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Spal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Spal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Modena's recent matches and 38% of Spal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Spal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Modena's recent games and 38% of Spal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Spal tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Spal in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Modena's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena and Spal finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.21 xG and Spal 0.89 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Modena fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Spal landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.92 / defence 0.99 against Spal attack 0.92 / defence 1.16, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 43% | Draw 31% | Spal 26%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 46%, Spal 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Spal's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.30 PPG, Spal 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Spal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.