Sampdoria 2-2 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 39%, yet in-form Sampdoria provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sampdoria vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sampdoria host Modena at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 February 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Sampdoria — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria's home record at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Modena have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Sampdoria carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sampdoria register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Modena in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Sampdoria have won 1, Modena 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 2–0 with Sampdoria winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sampdoria trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Modena trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 52% versus Modena 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 47% | Modena 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.35 xG and Modena 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.819 / defence 1.283 | Modena attack 0.956 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.196. Modena bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Sampdoria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Sampdoria games / 60 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 34% | Draw 27% | Modena 39%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Modena 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sampdoria (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 60% | Modena 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 34% | Draw 27% | Modena 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Sampdoria 1.35 / Modena 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.819 / def 1.283 | Modena attack 0.956 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Modena (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Modena xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Modena kick off?
Sampdoria vs Modena kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Modena?
Sampdoria 2 - 2 Modena.
Where is Sampdoria vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Modena part of?
Sampdoria vs Modena is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 34% chance of winning, Modena a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sampdoria and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Modena?
Record (1 meetings): Sampdoria 1W | Draws 0 | Modena 0W.
What form are Sampdoria and Modena in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Modena (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sampdoria's attack at 0.82x the league average against Modena's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
34%
2.96
27%
3.67
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.82
1.47
Modena xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
8%
12.85
10%
9.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.8 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.47 for Modena, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sampdoria come into this having played 60 games, going 11W 14D 35L for 0.78 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Modena sit at 1.32 PPG from 60 outings (21W 16D 23L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Modena carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sampdoria's home form reads 5W 8D 17L across 30 games on their own ground, a 0.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Modena have taken 1.10 points per game from 30 outings (9W 6D 15L).
The Goals Picture
Sampdoria are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.20 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Modena in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 11W 14D 35L in their last 60 games (0.78 PPG), while Modena have gone 21W 16D 23L in their last 60 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Modena away?
Modena's away record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 0.77 PPG; Modena away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sampdoria and Modena runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sampdoria's record when hosting Modena specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Sampdoria
1
Draws
1
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Modena?
From 6 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 4, Modena have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Modena 1-2 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Modena?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 47%, Modena 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Sampdoria) and 57% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Modena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Sampdoria's games and 63% of Modena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sampdoria vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Sampdoria's recent games and 57% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Modena tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Modena in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sampdoria and Modena share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 23, as Sampdoria and Modena drew 2-2 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.35 xG and Modena 1.47 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.82 / defence 1.28 against Modena attack 0.96 / defence 1.22, drawn from 22/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 34% | Draw 27% | Modena 39%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 47%, Modena 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Modena's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Modena arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sampdoria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm. Modena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.