Mantova 0-3 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sassuolo at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mantova vs Sassuolo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mantova host Sassuolo at Stadio Danilo Martelli in Serie B, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 February 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Mantova have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mantova's home record at Stadio Danilo Martelli: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Danilo Martelli. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Mantova are significantly better at Stadio Danilo Martelli than their overall form suggests.
Sassuolo — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sassuolo's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Sassuolo's 2.40 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Mantova's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Mantova, 1 for Sassuolo and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Sassuolo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Mantova in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Sassuolo in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mantova 58% and Sassuolo 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 46% | Sassuolo 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.24 xG and Sassuolo 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 0.927 / defence 1.159 | Sassuolo attack 1.193 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.101. Data: 24 Mantova games / 24 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 29% | Draw 29% | Sassuolo 42%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Sassuolo 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sassuolo at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sassuolo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Mantova 40% | Sassuolo 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Feb 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 29% | Draw 29% | Sassuolo 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Mantova 1.24 / Sassuolo 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 0.927 / def 1.159 | Sassuolo attack 1.193 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Sassuolo xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Sassuolo kick off?
Mantova vs Sassuolo kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Sassuolo?
Mantova 0 - 3 Sassuolo.
Where is Mantova vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Sassuolo part of?
Mantova vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 29% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Mantova and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Sassuolo?
Record (1 meetings): Mantova 0W | Draws 0 | Sassuolo 1W.
What form are Mantova and Sassuolo in?
Mantova (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Sassuolo (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mantova's attack rating (0.93) and Sassuolo's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sassuolo's attack versus Mantova's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
29%
3.46
29%
3.41
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.76
1.52
Sassuolo xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
6%
15.85
12%
8.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.6 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Mantova and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Mantova and 1.52 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mantova's recent record stands at 6W 10D 8L from 24 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sassuolo, meanwhile, have gone 17W 4D 3L across 24 games — 2.29 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sassuolo by 1.12 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mantova heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mantova have managed 5W 4D 2L from 11 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Mantova are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sassuolo's away record stands at 7W 2D 2L across 11 trips, a 2.09 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Mantova are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 2.21 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo in 62%.
Defensively: Sassuolo in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Blended
Sassuolo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 6W 10D 8L in their last 24 games (1.17 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 17W 4D 3L in their last 24 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Sassuolo away?
Sassuolo's away record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.73 PPG; Sassuolo away: 2.09 PPG.
Have Mantova or Sassuolo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mantova have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Sassuolo in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Mantova
0
Draws
2
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Sassuolo?
From 2 meetings on record, Mantova have won 0, Sassuolo have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Mantova 0-3 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Sassuolo?
Sassuolo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mantova see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 46%, Sassuolo 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Mantova) and 54% (Sassuolo).
On the defensive side: Mantova keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Sassuolo in 36%; Mantova have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Sassuolo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Mantova's recent matches and 64% of Sassuolo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mantova vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Mantova's recent games and 54% of Sassuolo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sassuolo run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Mantova.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo beat Mantova 0-3 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.24 xG and Sassuolo 1.52 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Mantova fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Sassuolo outscored their 1.52 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.93 / defence 1.16 against Sassuolo attack 1.19 / defence 1.08, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 29% | Draw 29% | Sassuolo 42%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 46%, Sassuolo 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sassuolo's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sassuolo arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Mantova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sassuolo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.