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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Juve Stabia take on Bari.

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Analysis & Preview

A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Bari travel to Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti to take on Juve Stabia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 February 2025, 16:15 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie B games this season, Juve Stabia have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Juve Stabia's home record at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Bari stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Bari have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Juve Stabia 1.50 PPG, Bari 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Juve Stabia, 0 for Bari and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 3–1 with Juve Stabia winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Juve Stabia trading profile (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Bari trading profile (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 54% versus Bari 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Juve Stabia 50% | Bari 29%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 0.90 xG and Bari 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.897 / defence 1.095 | Bari attack 0.790 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.101. Data: 24 Juve Stabia games / 62 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 31% | Draw 35% | Bari 34%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | Bari 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.85 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 60% | Bari 30% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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