Modena 3-1 Mantova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Mantova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Modena and Mantova meet at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 February 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Modena have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 7D 1L. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena's home record at Stadio Alberto Braglia: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Mantova (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mantova's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Modena lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Modena — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Mantova — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 56% versus Mantova 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 44% | Mantova 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.45 xG and Mantova 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.949 / defence 0.929 | Mantova attack 1.041 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.122. Mantova bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing Modena's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Modena games / 23 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 43% | Draw 31% | Mantova 26%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Mantova 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Modena are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Modena 50% | Mantova 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 43% | Draw 31% | Mantova 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Modena 1.45 / Mantova 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.949 / def 0.929 | Mantova attack 1.041 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Modena (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Mantova xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Mantova kick off?
Modena vs Mantova kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Mantova?
Modena 3 - 1 Mantova.
Where is Modena vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Mantova part of?
Modena vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 43% chance of winning, Mantova a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Modena and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Mantova?
Record (1 meetings): Modena 0W | Draws 1 | Mantova 0W.
What form are Modena and Mantova in?
Modena (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Mantova (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Modena's attack rating (0.95) and Mantova's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mantova's attack (1.04x) against Modena's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 61/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
43%
2.33
31%
3.22
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Modena xG
Total xG
2.53
1.09
Mantova xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
15%
6.89
6%
16.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Modena and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Modena and 1.09 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 23 outings, Modena have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 5W 12D 6L record — D-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mantova's form line: 6W 10D 7L from 23 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-D. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Modena against 1.22 for Mantova. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Modena have posted 1.55 PPG from 11 outings (4W 5D 2L).
On the road, Mantova have gone 1W 5D 5L from 11 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mantova's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Modena are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.22 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Mantova
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Mantova in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 5W 12D 6L in their last 23 games (1.17 PPG), while Mantova have gone 6W 10D 7L in their last 23 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Mantova away?
Modena's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.55 PPG; Mantova away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Modena have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Modena have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mantova — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Modena
1
Draws
0
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Mantova?
From 4 meetings on record, Modena have won 3, Mantova have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Mantova last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Modena 2-1 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Mantova?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 54%, Mantova 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Modena) and 46% (Mantova).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Mantova in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Mantova?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Modena's games and 64% of Mantova's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Modena vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Modena's recent games and 46% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Mantova tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Mantova in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Modena cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Mantova.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Mantova 3-1 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.45 xG and Mantova 1.09 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Modena beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.95 / defence 0.93 against Mantova attack 1.04 / defence 1.25, drawn from 61/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 43% | Draw 31% | Mantova 26%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 44%, Mantova 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Mantova's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.17 PPG, Mantova 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm. Mantova (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.