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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Juve Stabia take on Monza.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Romeo Menti plays host to Juve Stabia versus Monza in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 30 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

Juve Stabia (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Juve Stabia have posted 6W 3D 1L at Stadio Romeo Menti — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Romeo Menti. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Juve Stabia are significantly better at Stadio Romeo Menti than their overall form suggests.

Monza have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Serie B this season, Monza have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Monza are 1.00 PPG clear of Juve Stabia in recent Serie B fixtures (2.50 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Trading & In-Play

Juve Stabia — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Monza — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 49% versus Monza 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 49% | Monza 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 0.91 xG and Monza 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.907 / defence 0.717 | Monza attack 1.096 / defence 0.735. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.055. Monza's defence strength of 0.735 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Juve Stabia's defence rating of 0.717 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Juve Stabia games / 13 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 34% | Draw 37% | Monza 29%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.94 | Draw 2.70 | Monza 3.45. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Monza's lower xG of 0.83 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.

Picks & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.74 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 30% | Monza 40% BTTS from recent games.

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