Palermo 5-0 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palermo at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palermo vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 14 as Palermo welcome Carrarese to Stadio Renzo Barbera. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 November 2025 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Palermo have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo at Stadio Renzo Barbera this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
Carrarese — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Carrarese away from home this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Palermo) versus 1.10 (Carrarese). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Palermo, 1 for Carrarese and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Palermo trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Carrarese trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 53% versus Carrarese 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 43% | Carrarese 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.47 xG and Carrarese 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.039 / defence 0.899 | Carrarese attack 1.082 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.063. Data: 51 Palermo games / 51 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 46% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 25%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Carrarese 4.00. Palermo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palermo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 40% | Carrarese 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 46% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Palermo 1.47 / Carrarese 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.039 / def 0.899 | Carrarese attack 1.082 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Palermo (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Carrarese xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Carrarese kick off?
Palermo vs Carrarese kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Carrarese?
Palermo 5 - 0 Carrarese.
Where is Palermo vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Carrarese part of?
Palermo vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 46% chance of winning, Carrarese a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Palermo and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Carrarese?
Record (2 meetings): Palermo 0W | Draws 1 | Carrarese 1W.
What form are Palermo and Carrarese in?
Palermo (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Carrarese (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Palermo's attack at 1.04x the league average against Carrarese's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Carrarese's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
46%
2.19
29%
3.42
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.51
1.03
Carrarese xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
6%
17.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Palermo and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Palermo and 1.03 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Palermo have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 19W 15D 17L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Carrarese's form line: 14W 19D 18L from 51 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-D. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palermo on 1.41 PPG, Carrarese on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Palermo have posted 1.60 PPG from 25 outings (11W 7D 7L).
On the road, Carrarese have gone 2W 11D 12L from 25 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Carrarese's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palermo are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.12 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Carrarese in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Carrarese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 19W 15D 17L in their last 51 games (1.41 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 14W 19D 18L in their last 51 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Carrarese away?
Palermo's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.60 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Palermo or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Carrarese in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Palermo have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Nov 2025, when Palermo won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palermo's record when hosting Carrarese specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Palermo
1
Draws
1
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Carrarese?
From 4 meetings on record, Palermo have won 2, Carrarese have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Carrarese 0-1 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Carrarese?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 40%, Carrarese 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Palermo) and 48% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Carrarese in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Carrarese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Palermo's recent matches and 64% of Carrarese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Palermo's recent games and 48% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Carrarese tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Palermo run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Carrarese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Carrarese 5-0 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.47 xG and Carrarese 1.03 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Palermo beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Carrarese landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.04 / defence 0.90 against Carrarese attack 1.08 / defence 1.05, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 46% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 25%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 43%, Carrarese 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Carrarese's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.41 PPG, Carrarese 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Carrarese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.