🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Venezia at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Venezia vs Mantova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Venezia and Mantova meet at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Venezia's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Venezia's home record at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Mantova (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Mantova have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Form favours the hosts. Venezia's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Mantova's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Trading & In-Play

Venezia — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Mantova — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 51% versus Mantova 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 47% | Mantova 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.55 xG and Mantova 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.317 / defence 0.906 | Mantova attack 0.750 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.071. Venezia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.317 — their λ of 1.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 13 Venezia games / 51 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Venezia 55% | Draw 30% | Mantova 15%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 1.82 | Draw 3.33 | Mantova 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Venezia (55%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Venezia at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 50% | Mantova 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights