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Poisson model rates Empoli at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Bari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Bari travel to Stadio Carlo Castellani to take on Empoli. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 November 2025, 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie B games this season, Empoli have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Empoli have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Bari stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bari away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Empoli 1.30 PPG, Bari 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Empoli register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Bari in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

In-Play Data

Empoli trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Bari trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 60% versus Bari 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 50% | Bari 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.55 xG and Bari 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.926 / defence 1.033 | Bari attack 0.919 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.071. Bari bring a strong defensive rating of 1.257 — this is suppressing Empoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Empoli games / 50 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Empoli 47% | Draw 30% | Bari 22%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Bari 4.55. Empoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Empoli as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 80% | Bari 60% BTTS from recent games.

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