Empoli 5-0 Bari – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Empoli at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Bari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Bari travel to Stadio Carlo Castellani to take on Empoli. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 November 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Empoli have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Empoli have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bari stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bari away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Empoli 1.30 PPG, Bari 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Empoli register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Bari in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Empoli trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bari trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 60% versus Bari 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 50% | Bari 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.55 xG and Bari 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.926 / defence 1.033 | Bari attack 0.919 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.071. Bari bring a strong defensive rating of 1.257 — this is suppressing Empoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Empoli games / 50 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 47% | Draw 30% | Bari 22%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Bari 4.55. Empoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Empoli as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 80% | Bari 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 47% | Draw 30% | Bari 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Empoli 1.55 / Bari 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.926 / def 1.033 | Bari attack 0.919 / def 1.257 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Empoli (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Bari xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Bari kick off?
Empoli vs Bari kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Bari?
Empoli 5 - 0 Bari.
Where is Empoli vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Bari part of?
Empoli vs Bari is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 47% chance of winning, Bari a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Empoli and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Bari?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Empoli and Bari in?
Empoli (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Bari (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Empoli's attack at 0.93x the league average against Bari's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bari's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
47%
2.12
30%
3.30
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.57
1.02
Bari xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
5%
20.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.1 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Empoli and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Empoli and 1.02 for Bari, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Empoli's recent record stands at 10W 17D 23L from 50 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bari, meanwhile, have gone 13W 22D 15L across 50 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Empoli on 0.94 PPG, Bari on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Empoli have managed 4W 11D 10L from 25 games — 0.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bari's away record stands at 3W 11D 11L across 25 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bari's season.
The Goals Picture
Empoli are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.08 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Bari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Bari in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 10W 17D 23L in their last 50 games (0.94 PPG), while Bari have gone 13W 22D 15L in their last 50 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Bari away?
Empoli's home record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 0.92 PPG; Bari away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Empoli or Bari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Empoli have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Bari in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Empoli and Bari runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 4 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Empoli
0
Draws
1
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Bari?
From 2 meetings on record, Empoli have won 1, Bari have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2026, when Bari 2-1 Empoli.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Empoli see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 52%, Bari 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Empoli) and 40% (Bari).
On the defensive side: Empoli have failed to score in 40% of games; Bari in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Bari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Empoli's recent matches and 52% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Empoli's recent games and 40% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Bari tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Bari in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Empoli run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Bari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli beat Bari 5-0 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.55 xG and Bari 1.02 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Empoli beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bari landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.93 / defence 1.03 against Bari attack 0.92 / defence 1.26, drawn from 13/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 47% | Draw 30% | Bari 22%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 50%, Bari 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Bari's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 0.94 PPG, Bari 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Empoli win broke the near-deadlock. Empoli (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.