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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 44%, yet in-form Juve Stabia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Juve Stabia travel to Stadio Luigi Ferraris to take on Sampdoria. The game is scheduled for Monday 24 November 2025, 19:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Sampdoria stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sampdoria at Stadio Luigi Ferraris this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Luigi Ferraris. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Sampdoria are significantly better at Stadio Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.

Juve Stabia — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Juve Stabia's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. Juve Stabia's 1.60 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Sampdoria's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sampdoria, 1 for Juve Stabia and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Sampdoria in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Juve Stabia in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 53% versus Juve Stabia 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 39% | Juve Stabia 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.51 xG and Juve Stabia 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.855 / defence 0.972 | Juve Stabia attack 1.012 / defence 1.319. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.091. Juve Stabia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.319 — this is suppressing Sampdoria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Sampdoria games / 49 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sampdoria 44% | Draw 32% | Juve Stabia 24%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Juve Stabia 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Sampdoria are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Juve Stabia (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sampdoria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sampdoria 30% | Juve Stabia 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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