Sampdoria 1-0 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 44%, yet in-form Juve Stabia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Juve Stabia travel to Stadio Luigi Ferraris to take on Sampdoria. The game is scheduled for Monday 24 November 2025, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sampdoria stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria at Stadio Luigi Ferraris this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Luigi Ferraris. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Sampdoria are significantly better at Stadio Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Juve Stabia — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juve Stabia's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Juve Stabia's 1.60 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Sampdoria's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sampdoria, 1 for Juve Stabia and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Sampdoria in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Juve Stabia in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 53% versus Juve Stabia 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 39% | Juve Stabia 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.51 xG and Juve Stabia 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.855 / defence 0.972 | Juve Stabia attack 1.012 / defence 1.319. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.091. Juve Stabia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.319 — this is suppressing Sampdoria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Sampdoria games / 49 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 44% | Draw 32% | Juve Stabia 24%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Juve Stabia 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sampdoria are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Juve Stabia (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sampdoria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sampdoria 30% | Juve Stabia 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Monday 24 Nov 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 44% | Draw 32% | Juve Stabia 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Sampdoria 1.51 / Juve Stabia 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.855 / def 0.972 | Juve Stabia attack 1.012 / def 1.319 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Juve Stabia xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 24 November 2025 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia?
Sampdoria 1 - 0 Juve Stabia.
Where is Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia part of?
Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 44% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sampdoria and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Juve Stabia?
Record (2 meetings): Sampdoria 0W | Draws 1 | Juve Stabia 1W.
What form are Sampdoria and Juve Stabia in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Juve Stabia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sampdoria's attack rating (0.85) and Juve Stabia's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Juve Stabia's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
44%
2.26
32%
3.15
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.58
1.07
Juve Stabia xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
15%
6.62
5%
18.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.3 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.07 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sampdoria come into this having played 51 games, going 10W 21D 20L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Juve Stabia sit at 1.47 PPG from 51 outings (19W 18D 14L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juve Stabia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sampdoria's home form reads 8W 9D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Juve Stabia have taken 0.96 points per game from 25 outings (4W 12D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juve Stabia's season.
The Goals Picture
Sampdoria are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.08 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Juve Stabia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 10W 21D 20L in their last 51 games (1.00 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 19W 18D 14L in their last 51 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Juve Stabia away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.32 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Sampdoria or Juve Stabia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sampdoria have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Juve Stabia in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sampdoria and Juve Stabia runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sampdoria's record when hosting Juve Stabia specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Sampdoria
2
Draws
2
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Juve Stabia?
From 5 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 1, Juve Stabia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Sampdoria 1-2 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Juve Stabia?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sampdoria see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 32%, Juve Stabia 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Sampdoria) and 52% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Sampdoria have failed to score in 40% of games; Juve Stabia in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Juve Stabia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 56% of Juve Stabia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Sampdoria's recent games and 52% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sampdoria edge out Juve Stabia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Juve Stabia 1-0 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.51 xG and Juve Stabia 1.07 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Juve Stabia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.85 / defence 0.97 against Juve Stabia attack 1.01 / defence 1.32, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 44% | Draw 32% | Juve Stabia 24%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 39%, Juve Stabia 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Juve Stabia arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Sampdoria winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sampdoria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.