Sudtirol 0-1 Avellino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Avellino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Avellino make the trip to Stadio Marco Druso to face Sudtirol in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Sudtirol (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol at Stadio Marco Druso this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Sudtirol are significantly better at Stadio Marco Druso than their overall form suggests.
Avellino have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Avellino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Avellino's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 3L across 7 road games this term (0.86 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Sudtirol against 1.20 for Avellino. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Sudtirol goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 31% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Avellino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 69% versus Avellino 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 38% | Avellino 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.68 xG and Avellino 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.930 / defence 1.080 | Avellino attack 0.906 / defence 1.361. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.071. Avellino bring a strong defensive rating of 1.361 — this is suppressing Sudtirol's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Sudtirol games / 13 Avellino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 50% | Draw 29% | Avellino 21%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Avellino 4.76. Sudtirol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sudtirol are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 60% | Avellino 57% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Avellino | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 50% | Draw 29% | Avellino 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Sudtirol 1.68 / Avellino 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.930 / def 1.080 | Avellino attack 0.906 / def 1.361 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Avellino xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Avellino kick off?
Sudtirol vs Avellino kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Avellino?
Sudtirol 0 - 1 Avellino.
Where is Sudtirol vs Avellino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Avellino part of?
Sudtirol vs Avellino is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Avellino?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 50% chance of winning, Avellino a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Avellino?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sudtirol and Avellino will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Avellino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Avellino?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sudtirol and Avellino in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Avellino (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sudtirol's attack rating (0.93) and Avellino's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Avellino's attack (0.91x) against Sudtirol's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 51/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
50%
2.00
29%
3.47
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.73
1.05
Avellino xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
17%
5.72
4%
25.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.5 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Avellino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Avellino expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.05 for Avellino, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Avellino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 2W 7D 4L from 13 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Avellino, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 5L across 13 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Avellino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Sudtirol against 1.23 for Avellino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sudtirol have managed 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Avellino's away record stands at 1W 3D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sudtirol are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Avellino are on 1.23 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sudtirol have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Avellino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Avellino in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 2W 7D 4L in their last 13 games (1.00 PPG), while Avellino have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Avellino away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.17 PPG; Avellino away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sudtirol
0
Draws
2
Avellino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Avellino?
From 2 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 0, Avellino have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Avellino last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Avellino 3-2 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Avellino?
Avellino have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Avellino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Sudtirol, 67% for Avellino — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sudtirol) and 50% (Avellino).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol have failed to score in 33% of games; Avellino in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Avellino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Avellino?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sudtirol's games and 67% of Avellino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sudtirol vs Avellino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sudtirol's recent games and 50% of Avellino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Avellino tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Avellino in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Avellino defy the odds to beat Sudtirol 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Avellino beat Sudtirol 0-1 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.68 xG and Avellino 1.05 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sudtirol fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.93 / defence 1.08 against Avellino attack 0.91 / defence 1.36, drawn from 51/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 50% | Draw 29% | Avellino 21%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Avellino win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 38%, Avellino 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Avellino's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.00 PPG, Avellino 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Avellino win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Avellino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.