Ascoli 4-3 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ascoli at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ascoli vs Brescia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 31 as Ascoli welcome Brescia to Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 April 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ascoli stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Ascoli at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie B games this season, Brescia have recorded 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Brescia have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Ascoli carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Ascoli, 2 for Brescia and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ascoli trading profile (69 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Brescia trading profile (69 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 48% versus Brescia 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ascoli 38% | Brescia 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 0.95 xG and Brescia 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.705 / defence 1.006 | Brescia attack 0.723 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 0.968. Ascoli's attack strength of 0.705 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 68 Ascoli games / 68 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 39% | Draw 35% | Brescia 26%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 2.56 | Draw 2.86 | Brescia 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.65. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.65 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Brescia's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Our Verdict
Brescia lead the H2H ledger, but Ascoli carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Ascoli as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ascoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 23% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 31% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ascoli 30% | Brescia 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 39% | Draw 35% | Brescia 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 31% | xG Ascoli 0.95 / Brescia 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.705 / def 1.006 | Brescia attack 0.723 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.143 / away 0.968 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Brescia xG
31%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Brescia kick off?
Ascoli vs Brescia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Brescia?
Ascoli 4 - 3 Brescia.
Where is Ascoli vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Brescia part of?
Ascoli vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 39% chance of winning, Brescia a 26% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Ascoli and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Brescia?
Record (3 meetings): Ascoli 0W | Draws 1 | Brescia 2W.
What form are Ascoli and Brescia in?
Ascoli (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Brescia (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ascoli's attack rating (0.70) and Brescia's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brescia's attack versus Ascoli's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
39%
2.54
35%
2.88
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.2%
Home win
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Ascoli xG
Total xG
1.65
0.70
Brescia xG
2.54
39%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.20
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
49%
2.02
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
19%
5.13
10%
10.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.2 | 13.5 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.2 | 12.8 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.8%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Ascoli and 0.70 for Brescia, a combined total of 1.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 69 outings, Ascoli have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 28W 17D 24L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Brescia's form line: 22W 25D 22L from 69 games, 1.32 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ascoli on 1.46 PPG, Brescia on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ascoli have posted 1.24 PPG from 33 outings (10W 11D 12L).
On the road, Brescia have gone 10W 12D 11L from 33 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Ascoli are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.10 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Current Season
Brescia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Brescia in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 28W 17D 24L in their last 69 games (1.46 PPG), while Brescia have gone 22W 25D 22L in their last 69 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Brescia away?
Brescia's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 1.24 PPG; Brescia away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Ascoli's record when hosting Brescia specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ascoli
3
Draws
2
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Brescia?
From 6 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 1, Brescia have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2024, when Ascoli 1-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Brescia?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 48%, Brescia 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Ascoli) and 36% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Ascoli keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Brescia in 30%; Ascoli have failed to score in 36% of games; Brescia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Brescia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Ascoli's recent matches and 48% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ascoli vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Ascoli's recent games and 36% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Brescia tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Brescia in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ascoli edge out Brescia 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ascoli beat Brescia 4-3 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 0.95 xG and Brescia 0.70 xG, a combined 1.65. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Ascoli beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Brescia outscored their 0.70 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.70 / defence 1.01 against Brescia attack 0.72 / defence 1.18, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 39% | Draw 35% | Brescia 26%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 38%, Brescia 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (69 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Brescia's trading profile (69 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ascoli 1.46 PPG, Brescia 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ascoli win broke the near-deadlock. Ascoli (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brescia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.