Cagliari 1-1 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cagliari at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cagliari and Sudtirol meet at Unipol Domus in Serie B, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 April 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Cagliari (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Cagliari's home record at Unipol Domus: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Cagliari are significantly better at Unipol Domus than their overall form suggests.
Sudtirol's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Sudtirol arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Cagliari, 0 for Sudtirol and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Cagliari — key trading statistics (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Sudtirol — key trading statistics (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 53% versus Sudtirol 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cagliari 37% | Sudtirol 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.00 xG and Sudtirol 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 1.163 / defence 0.976 | Sudtirol attack 0.895 / defence 0.756. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 0.968. Sudtirol's defence strength of 0.756 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 30 Cagliari games / 30 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 38% | Draw 33% | Sudtirol 29%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Sudtirol 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cagliari as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sudtirol (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cagliari if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.85 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 60% | Sudtirol 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 38% | Draw 33% | Sudtirol 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Cagliari 1.00 / Sudtirol 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 1.163 / def 0.976 | Sudtirol attack 0.895 / def 0.756 | league avg home 1.143 / away 0.968 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Sudtirol xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Sudtirol kick off?
Cagliari vs Sudtirol kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Sudtirol?
Cagliari 1 - 1 Sudtirol.
Where is Cagliari vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Sudtirol part of?
Cagliari vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 38% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Cagliari and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Sudtirol?
Record (1 meetings): Cagliari 0W | Draws 1 | Sudtirol 0W.
What form are Cagliari and Sudtirol in?
Cagliari (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Sudtirol (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cagliari's attack rating (1.16) and Sudtirol's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (0.90x) against Cagliari's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
38%
2.64
33%
3.06
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Cagliari xG
Total xG
1.85
0.85
Sudtirol xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.74
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
11%
9.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.4 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Cagliari and 0.85 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Cagliari have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 11W 12D 7L record — D-D-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Sudtirol's form line: 13W 12D 5L from 30 games, 1.70 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Cagliari against 1.70 for Sudtirol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cagliari have posted 2.00 PPG from 14 outings (8W 4D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Cagliari are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 7W 4D 3L from 14 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Cagliari are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.13 scored and 0.93 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Sudtirol in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Current Season
Sudtirol
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 11W 12D 7L in their last 30 games (1.50 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 13W 12D 5L in their last 30 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Sudtirol away?
Cagliari's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 2.00 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Cagliari or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cagliari
2
Draws
0
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Sudtirol?
From 2 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 0, Sudtirol have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when Cagliari 1-1 Sudtirol.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 57%, Sudtirol 21% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Cagliari and 21% for Sudtirol.
On the defensive side: Cagliari keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Sudtirol in 57%; Sudtirol in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Cagliari's recent matches and 21% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cagliari vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Cagliari's recent games and 21% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cagliari and Sudtirol share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 31, as Cagliari and Sudtirol drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.00 xG and Sudtirol 0.85 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.16 / defence 0.98 against Sudtirol attack 0.90 / defence 0.76, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 38% | Draw 33% | Sudtirol 29%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 37%, Sudtirol 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Sudtirol's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 1.50 PPG, Sudtirol 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.