Pisa 3-0 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pisa at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Brescia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Brescia travel to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to take on Pisa. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 December 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 4W 6D 0L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's home record at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Brescia — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Brescia have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Pisa are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Pisa, 0 for Brescia and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Pisa in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Brescia in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 53% versus Brescia 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pisa 38% | Brescia 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.74 xG and Brescia 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.303 / defence 0.921 | Brescia attack 0.976 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.077. Pisa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.303 — their λ of 1.74 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 55 Pisa games / 55 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 54% | Draw 27% | Brescia 19%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Brescia 5.26. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 50% | Brescia 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Dec 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 54% | Draw 27% | Brescia 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Pisa 1.74 / Brescia 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.303 / def 0.921 | Brescia attack 0.976 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.160 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Pisa (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Brescia xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Brescia kick off?
Pisa vs Brescia kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 17 December 2022 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Brescia?
Pisa 3 - 0 Brescia.
Where is Pisa vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Brescia part of?
Pisa vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 54% chance of winning, Brescia a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Pisa and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Brescia?
Record (2 meetings): Pisa 1W | Draws 1 | Brescia 0W.
What form are Pisa and Brescia in?
Pisa (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Brescia (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pisa's attack rating (1.30) and Brescia's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brescia's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
54%
1.86
27%
3.64
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.71
0.97
Brescia xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
17%
5.72
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
3%
30.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.2 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Pisa and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Pisa and 0.97 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, Pisa have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 23W 21D 14L record — D-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brescia's form line: 24W 21D 13L from 58 games, 1.60 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 1.55 PPG, Brescia on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Pisa have posted 1.86 PPG from 28 outings (14W 10D 4L).
On the road, Brescia have gone 11W 10D 7L from 28 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Pisa are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.36 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Brescia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Brescia in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 23W 21D 14L in their last 58 games (1.55 PPG), while Brescia have gone 24W 21D 13L in their last 58 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Brescia away?
Pisa's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.86 PPG; Brescia away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Pisa or Brescia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Brescia in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pisa and Brescia runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pisa have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Dec 2022, when Pisa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pisa's record when hosting Brescia specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Pisa
3
Draws
1
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Brescia?
From 8 meetings on record, Pisa have won 4, Brescia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Brescia 1-2 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Brescia?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 50%, Brescia 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Pisa) and 36% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Brescia in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Brescia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Pisa's recent matches and 54% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Pisa's recent games and 36% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Brescia tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Brescia in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pisa run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Brescia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Brescia 3-0 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.74 xG and Brescia 0.97 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Pisa beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Brescia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.30 / defence 0.92 against Brescia attack 0.98 / defence 1.15, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 54% | Draw 27% | Brescia 19%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 38%, Brescia 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Brescia's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.55 PPG, Brescia 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.