Frosinone 2-1 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Frosinone at 63% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Frosinone face Bari.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bari make the trip to Stadio Benito Stirpe to face Frosinone in Serie B (matchday 31). The match kicks off on Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Frosinone have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Frosinone's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Bari (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Bari have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Frosinone against 1.40 for Bari. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Frosinone, 2 for Bari and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended Frosinone 3–2 Bari — a Frosinone win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Frosinone goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 68 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Bari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 68 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 56% versus Bari 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 50% | Bari 41%). Note also that Bari surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while Frosinone recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 41% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 2.02 xG and Bari 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.255 / defence 0.972 | Bari attack 0.793 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.109. Frosinone carry an above-average attack rating of 1.255 — their 2.02 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Bari's defence rating of 1.208 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Frosinone's projected output up. Bari's attack rating of 0.793 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. Data: built from Frosinone's last 68 games and Bari's last 68.
Result probabilities: Frosinone 63% | Draw 23% | Bari 14%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 1.58 | Draw 4.37 | Bari 7.21. The model has a clear lean to Frosinone (63%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Frosinone at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Frosinone 50% (last 10 home games) | Bari 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, matchday 31 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 63% | Draw 23% | Bari 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Frosinone 2.02 / Bari 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.255 / def 0.972 | Bari attack 0.793 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Bari xG
51%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frosinone vs Bari FAQs
What time does Frosinone vs Bari kick off?
Frosinone vs Bari kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Wednesday 18 March 2026 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Bari?
Frosinone 2 - 1 Bari.
Where is Frosinone vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Bari part of?
Frosinone vs Bari is a Serie B fixture (matchday 31) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 63% chance of winning, Bari a 14% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Frosinone and Bari will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Frosinone vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Frosinone's attack rating (1.25) and Bari's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bari's attack (0.79x) against Frosinone's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from Frosinone's last 68 games and Bari's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
63%
1.58
23%
4.37
14%
7.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.87
0.85
Bari xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
7.21
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
13%
7.52
Win to Nil
27%
3.72
2%
54.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frosinone vs Bari Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Frosinone and 0.85 for Bari, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Bari?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Frosinone's recent record stands at 25W 27D 16L from 68 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-D in the last five.
Bari, meanwhile, have gone 17W 28D 23L across 68 games — 1.16 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Frosinone against 1.16 for Bari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Frosinone have managed 12W 14D 7L from their last 33 home games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bari's away record stands at 5W 14D 14L across their last 33 away games, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Frosinone are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.03 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Current Season
Bari
Current Season
Frosinone (Home) vs Bari (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Frosinone
Current Season
Bari
Current Season
❓ Frosinone vs Bari Form FAQs
What form are Frosinone and Bari in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 25W 27D 16L in their last 68 games (1.50 PPG), while Bari have gone 17W 28D 23L in their last 68 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Bari away?
Frosinone's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 1.52 PPG; Bari away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Frosinone and Bari, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 18 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Frosinone have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bari won Frosinone 0-3 Bari on 22 Sep 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Frosinone have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Frosinone
1
Draws
2
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frosinone vs Bari H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Bari?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Frosinone have won 3, Bari have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Bari last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 March 2026: Frosinone 2-1 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Bari?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 58%, Bari 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Frosinone) and 39% (Bari).
On the defensive side: Bari in 30%; Bari in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frosinone vs Bari Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Frosinone and Bari matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Frosinone's recent matches and 46% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Frosinone and Bari matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Frosinone's recent games and 39% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Bari matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Frosinone's recent matches and 67% of Bari's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Frosinone edge out Bari 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Bari 2-1 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 2.02 xG and Bari 0.85 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.25 / defence 0.97 against Bari attack 0.79 / defence 1.21, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 63% | Draw 23% | Bari 14%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 50%, Bari 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Bari's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Frosinone 1.50 PPG, Bari 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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