Sudtirol 1-3 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Frosinone at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Marco Druso plays host to Sudtirol versus Frosinone in Serie B, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sudtirol's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Sudtirol's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Marco Druso this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Frosinone (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Frosinone have posted 5W 5D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Sudtirol 1W, Frosinone 0W, 4D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Frosinone half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 55% versus Frosinone 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 49% | Frosinone 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 0.92 xG and Frosinone 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.727 / defence 0.801 | Frosinone attack 1.327 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.093. Sudtirol's attack strength of 0.727 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Frosinone have an above-average attack strength of 1.327 — the away xG of 1.16 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 69 Sudtirol games / 69 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 27% | Draw 33% | Frosinone 40%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 3.70 | Draw 3.03 | Frosinone 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Frosinone as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Frosinone if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sudtirol 40% | Frosinone 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 27% | Draw 33% | Frosinone 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Sudtirol 0.92 / Frosinone 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.727 / def 0.801 | Frosinone attack 1.327 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Frosinone xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Frosinone kick off?
Sudtirol vs Frosinone kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Frosinone?
Sudtirol 1 - 3 Frosinone.
Where is Sudtirol vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Frosinone part of?
Sudtirol vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 27% chance of winning, Frosinone a 40% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sudtirol and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Frosinone?
Record (5 meetings): Sudtirol 1W | Draws 4 | Frosinone 0W.
What form are Sudtirol and Frosinone in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Frosinone (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sudtirol's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Frosinone's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. Flip it around — Frosinone's attack (1.33x) against Sudtirol's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
27%
3.68
33%
3.04
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.08
1.16
Frosinone xG
3.68
27%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
8%
11.77
16%
6.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 14.6 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.16 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 69 outings, Sudtirol have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 20W 24D 25L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Frosinone's form line: 26W 27D 16L from 69 games, 1.52 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Sudtirol against 1.52 for Frosinone. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sudtirol have posted 1.32 PPG from 34 outings (11W 12D 11L).
On the road, Frosinone have gone 13W 13D 8L from 34 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sudtirol are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.39 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Current Season
Frosinone
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 20W 24D 25L in their last 69 games (1.22 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 26W 27D 16L in their last 69 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Frosinone away?
Frosinone's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.32 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sudtirol won 0-3 on 25 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sudtirol have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Frosinone — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sudtirol
4
Draws
1
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Frosinone?
From 6 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 1, Frosinone have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Sudtirol 1-3 Frosinone.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 62%, Frosinone 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sudtirol) and 38% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Frosinone?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Sudtirol's games and 53% of Frosinone's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sudtirol vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sudtirol's recent games and 38% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Frosinone tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Frosinone cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sudtirol.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Sudtirol 1-3 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 0.92 xG and Frosinone 1.16 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Frosinone outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.73 / defence 0.80 against Frosinone attack 1.33 / defence 0.92, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 27% | Draw 33% | Frosinone 40%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 49%, Frosinone 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Frosinone's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.22 PPG, Frosinone 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.