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Poisson model rates Bari at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bari vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 32 as Bari welcome Carrarese to Stadio San Nicola. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 March 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Bari stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Bari at Stadio San Nicola this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Carrarese — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

On the road, Carrarese have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bari 1.10 PPG, Carrarese 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Bari, 2 for Carrarese and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with Carrarese winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Bari in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).

Carrarese in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 56% versus Carrarese 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 42% | Carrarese 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.48 xG and Carrarese 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.925 / defence 1.117 | Carrarese attack 0.897 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.093. Data: 69 Bari games / 69 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bari 45% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 27%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Carrarese 3.70. Bari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Bari as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bari 70% | Carrarese 70% BTTS from recent games.

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