Empoli 1-1 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Empoli face Reggiana.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Empoli welcome Reggiana to Stadio Carlo Castellani in Serie B (matchday 25). Kick-off is Sunday 15 February 2026 at 16:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Empoli have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Empoli's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Reggiana stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Reggiana's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Empoli at 0.80 PPG versus Reggiana's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Empoli's games and 60% of Reggiana's (from Empoli's last 10 home games and Reggiana's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Empoli, 1 for Reggiana and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 29 Aug 2025, ended Empoli 1–3 Reggiana — a Reggiana win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Empoli trading profile (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Reggiana trading profile (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 55% versus Reggiana 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 48% | Reggiana 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.30 xG and Reggiana 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.906 / defence 1.064 | Reggiana attack 0.832 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.063. Data: built from Empoli's last 24 games and Reggiana's last 62.
Result probabilities: Empoli 44% | Draw 30% | Reggiana 26%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.26 | Draw 3.39 | Reggiana 3.80. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Empoli as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Empoli 60% (last 10 home games) | Reggiana 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, matchday 25 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Sunday 15 February 2026 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 44% | Draw 30% | Reggiana 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Empoli 1.30 / Reggiana 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.906 / def 1.064 | Reggiana attack 0.832 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Empoli (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Reggiana xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Empoli vs Reggiana FAQs
What time does Empoli vs Reggiana kick off?
Empoli vs Reggiana kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Reggiana?
Empoli 1 - 1 Reggiana.
Where is Empoli vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Reggiana part of?
Empoli vs Reggiana is a Serie B fixture (matchday 25) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 44% chance of winning, Reggiana a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Empoli and Reggiana will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Empoli vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Empoli's attack at 0.91x the league average against Reggiana's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Reggiana's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Empoli's last 24 games and Reggiana's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
44%
2.26
30%
3.39
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.24
0.94
Reggiana xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
7%
13.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 10.0 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.0 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Empoli vs Reggiana Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Empoli and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Empoli and 0.94 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, Empoli have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 13W 20D 29L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Reggiana's form line: 17W 17D 28L from 62 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Empoli on 0.95 PPG, Reggiana on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Empoli have posted 0.90 PPG from their last 31 home games (5W 13D 13L).
On the road, Reggiana have gone 7W 7D 17L from their last 31 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Empoli are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.10 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Reggiana
Blended
Empoli (Home) vs Reggiana (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Empoli
Blended
Reggiana
Blended
❓ Empoli vs Reggiana Form FAQs
What form are Empoli and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 13W 20D 29L in their last 62 games (0.95 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 17W 17D 28L in their last 62 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Reggiana away?
Empoli's home record (0.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 0.90 PPG; Reggiana away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2025. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 15 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Empoli
1
Draws
1
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Empoli vs Reggiana H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Reggiana?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Empoli have won 0, Reggiana have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Empoli and Reggiana last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 February 2026: Empoli 1-1 Reggiana.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Reggiana?
Reggiana have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Empoli see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 52%, Reggiana 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Empoli) and 48% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Empoli have failed to score in 39% of games; Reggiana in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Empoli vs Reggiana Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Empoli and Reggiana matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Empoli's recent matches and 58% of Reggiana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Empoli and Reggiana matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Empoli's recent games and 48% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Reggiana matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 55% of Empoli's recent matches and 68% of Reggiana's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Empoli and Reggiana share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 25, as Empoli and Reggiana drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.30 xG and Reggiana 0.94 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.91 / defence 1.06 against Reggiana attack 0.83 / defence 1.12, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 44% | Draw 30% | Reggiana 26%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 48%, Reggiana 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Reggiana's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 0.95 PPG, Reggiana 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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