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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Bari take on Frosinone.

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Analysis

Frosinone make the trip to Stadio San Nicola to face Bari in Serie B, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 November 2025 at 18:30 UTC.

Form

Bari (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bari's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Stadio San Nicola this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Bari are significantly better at Stadio San Nicola than their overall form suggests.

Frosinone's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Frosinone's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Frosinone are 0.50 PPG clear of Bari in recent Serie B fixtures (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Bari 2W, Frosinone 1W, 1D.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2025, ended 2–1 with Bari winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Bari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).

Frosinone goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 57% versus Frosinone 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bari 37% | Frosinone 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.08 xG and Frosinone 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.989 / defence 0.811 | Frosinone attack 1.128 / defence 0.829. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.095. Data: 49 Bari games / 50 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bari 34% | Draw 37% | Frosinone 30%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.94 | Draw 2.70 | Frosinone 3.33. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bari 60% | Frosinone 30% BTTS from recent games.

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