Cremonese 0-0 Vicenza Virtus – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Cremonese at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Vicenza Virtus encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Giovanni Zini plays host to Cremonese versus Vicenza Virtus in Serie B, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Tuesday 22 February 2022 at 17:30 UTC.

Form

Cremonese (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Cremonese have posted 5W 4D 1L at Stadio Giovanni Zini — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Vicenza Virtus's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Vicenza Virtus's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward Cremonese. A 1.60 PPG lead over Vicenza Virtus (2.30 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Cremonese 1W, Vicenza Virtus 0W, 0D.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with Cremonese winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Cremonese half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).

Vicenza Virtus half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 50% versus Vicenza Virtus 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 42% | Vicenza Virtus 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 2.08 xG and Vicenza Virtus 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 1.405 / defence 1.129 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.794 / defence 1.536. League average goals — home 0.963 / away 1.169. Cremonese carry an above-average attack strength of 1.405 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Vicenza Virtus bring a strong defensive rating of 1.536 — this is suppressing Cremonese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Cremonese games / 24 Vicenza Virtus games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Cremonese 59% | Draw 25% | Vicenza Virtus 16%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Vicenza Virtus 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Cremonese (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Cremonese at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 70% | Vicenza Virtus 50% BTTS from recent games.

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