Spal 5-1 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ternana at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spal vs Ternana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 25 as Spal welcome Ternana to Stadio Paolo Mazza. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 22 February 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Spal — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Spal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Spal have posted 1W 4D 5L at Stadio Paolo Mazza — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ternana stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ternana's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ternana — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Spal, 1 for Ternana and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Ternana winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Spal trading profile (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Ternana trading profile (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spal 58% versus Ternana 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spal 46% | Ternana 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spal 1.16 xG and Ternana 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spal attack 0.958 / defence 1.478 | Ternana attack 1.028 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 0.963 / away 1.169. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.257 — this is suppressing Spal's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Spal games / 24 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spal 22% | Draw 28% | Ternana 49%. Fair-value odds: Spal 4.55 | Draw 3.57 | Ternana 2.04. Ternana hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.16 / 1.78) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ternana as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ternana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Spal 80% | Ternana 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spal vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Paolo Mazza • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spal 22% | Draw 28% | Ternana 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Spal 1.16 / Ternana 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Spal attack 0.958 / def 1.478 | Ternana attack 1.028 / def 1.257 | league avg home 0.963 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Ternana (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Spal xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Ternana xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spal vs Ternana kick off?
Spal vs Ternana kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 22 February 2022 at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What was the final score in Spal vs Ternana?
Spal 5 - 1 Ternana.
Where is Spal vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What competition is Spal vs Ternana part of?
Spal vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spal vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Spal a 22% chance of winning, Ternana a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spal vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Spal and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Spal vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Ternana?
Record (1 meetings): Spal 0W | Draws 0 | Ternana 1W.
What form are Spal and Ternana in?
Spal (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Ternana (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Spal's attack at 0.96x the league average against Ternana's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ternana's attack versus Spal's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
22%
4.48
28%
3.53
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Spal xG
Total xG
2.94
1.78
Ternana xG
4.48
22%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
17%
5.91
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
4%
26.49
15%
6.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.4 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spal vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Spal and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Spal and 1.78 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Spal vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 24 outings, Spal have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 5W 9D 10L record — D-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Spal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ternana's form line: 8W 7D 9L from 24 games, 1.29 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spal on 1.00 PPG, Ternana on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Spal have posted 0.92 PPG from 12 outings (2W 5D 5L).
On the road, Ternana have gone 3W 6D 3L from 12 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Spal are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.46 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spal
Blended
Ternana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spal and Ternana in coming into this match?
Spal have gone 5W 9D 10L in their last 24 games (1.00 PPG), while Ternana have gone 8W 7D 9L in their last 24 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spal at home or Ternana away?
Ternana's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spal at home: 0.92 PPG; Ternana away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Feb 2022, when Spal won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Spal's record when hosting Ternana specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Spal
2
Draws
1
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Ternana?
From 4 meetings on record, Spal have won 1, Ternana have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Spal and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when Spal 1-1 Ternana.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Spal at 75%, Ternana at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Spal) and 42% (Ternana).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spal home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spal play Ternana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Spal's games and 75% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spal vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Spal's recent games and 42% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spal and Ternana tend to score early?
Spal have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Ternana in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Spal run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Ternana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spal beat Ternana 5-1 at Stadio Paolo Mazza, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spal 1.16 xG and Ternana 1.78 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Spal beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spal attack 0.96 / defence 1.48 against Ternana attack 1.03 / defence 1.26, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spal 22% | Draw 28% | Ternana 49%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Spal win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spal 46%, Ternana 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spal's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Ternana's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spal 1.00 PPG, Ternana 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spal win broke the near-deadlock. Spal (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Ternana (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.