Vicenza Virtus 1-1 Spal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vicenza Virtus at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vicenza Virtus vs Spal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Spal travel to Stadio Romeo Menti to take on Vicenza Virtus. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 February 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Vicenza Virtus have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vicenza Virtus have posted 1W 3D 6L at Stadio Romeo Menti — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Spal stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Spal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spal's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Vicenza Virtus 0.90 PPG, Spal 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Vicenza Virtus, 1 for Spal and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2021, ended 2–3 with Spal winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Vicenza Virtus in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Spal in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vicenza Virtus 52% versus Spal 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vicenza Virtus 52% | Spal 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 1.37 xG and Spal 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.996 / defence 1.380 | Spal attack 0.640 / defence 1.456. League average goals — home 0.943 / away 1.176. Spal bring a strong defensive rating of 1.456 — this is suppressing Vicenza Virtus's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Vicenza Virtus games / 23 Spal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 42% | Draw 33% | Spal 26%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Spal 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vicenza Virtus as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vicenza Virtus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Vicenza Virtus 60% | Spal 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Spal | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 42% | Draw 33% | Spal 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG Vicenza Virtus 1.37 / Spal 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.996 / def 1.380 | Spal attack 0.640 / def 1.456 | league avg home 0.943 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Vicenza Virtus (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Spal xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Spal kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Spal kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Vicenza Virtus vs Spal?
Vicenza Virtus 1 - 1 Spal.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Spal being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Spal part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Spal is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Spal?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 42% chance of winning, Spal a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Vicenza Virtus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Spal?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Spal will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Spal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Spal?
Record (1 meetings): Vicenza Virtus 0W | Draws 0 | Spal 1W.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Spal in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Spal (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Vicenza Virtus's attack rating (1.00) and Spal's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Spal's attack versus Vicenza Virtus's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vicenza Virtus Win
42%
2.40
33%
3.06
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
2.41
1.04
Spal xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
25%
3.92
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
7%
15.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.8 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Spal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Spal expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.04 for Spal, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Spal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 23 outings, Vicenza Virtus have picked up 0.57 PPG on a 3W 4D 16L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spal's form line: 5W 8D 10L from 23 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-L. The sample for Spal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Spal are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vicenza Virtus.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Vicenza Virtus have posted 0.55 PPG from 11 outings (1W 3D 7L).
On the road, Spal have gone 3W 3D 5L from 11 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Spal are on 1.09 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
Spal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Spal in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 3W 4D 16L in their last 23 games (0.57 PPG), while Spal have gone 5W 8D 10L in their last 23 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vicenza Virtus at home or Spal away?
Spal's away record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vicenza Virtus at home: 0.55 PPG; Spal away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vicenza Virtus and Spal runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Vicenza Virtus
1
Draws
1
Spal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Spal?
From 2 meetings on record, Vicenza Virtus have won 0, Spal have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vicenza Virtus and Spal last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2022, when Vicenza Virtus 1-1 Spal.
Who has won more matches between Vicenza Virtus and Spal?
Spal have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vicenza Virtus 54%, Spal 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Vicenza Virtus) and 36% (Spal).
On the defensive side: Vicenza Virtus have failed to score in 46% of games; Spal in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Spal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Spal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Vicenza Virtus's recent matches and 36% of Spal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Spal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Vicenza Virtus's recent games and 36% of Spal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Spal tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Spal in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vicenza Virtus and Spal share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vicenza Virtus and Spal finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vicenza Virtus 1.37 xG and Spal 1.04 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vicenza Virtus attack 1.00 / defence 1.38 against Spal attack 0.64 / defence 1.46, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vicenza Virtus 42% | Draw 33% | Spal 26%, with Vicenza Virtus to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vicenza Virtus 52%, Spal 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vicenza Virtus's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Spal's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Spal arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.57. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.