Brescia 2-0 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ascoli at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brescia vs Ascoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Ascoli travel to Stadio Mario Rigamonti to take on Brescia. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 23 February 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Brescia — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brescia at Stadio Mario Rigamonti this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Mario Rigamonti this season.
Across all Serie B games this season, Ascoli have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ascoli's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Brescia 1.70 PPG, Ascoli 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Brescia register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Ascoli in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Brescia, 0 for Ascoli and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 3–2 with Brescia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Brescia trading profile (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Ascoli trading profile (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 50% versus Ascoli 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brescia 33% | Ascoli 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.06 xG and Ascoli 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 0.932 / defence 1.206 | Ascoli attack 1.238 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 0.967 / away 1.175. Ascoli have an above-average attack strength of 1.238 — the away xG of 1.75 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 24 Brescia games / 24 Ascoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 20% | Draw 29% | Ascoli 51%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 5.00 | Draw 3.45 | Ascoli 1.96. Ascoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ascoli as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ascoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Brescia 60% | Ascoli 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Wednesday 23 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 20% | Draw 29% | Ascoli 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Brescia 1.06 / Ascoli 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 0.932 / def 1.206 | Ascoli attack 1.238 / def 1.178 | league avg home 0.967 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Ascoli xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Ascoli kick off?
Brescia vs Ascoli kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 23 February 2022 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Ascoli?
Brescia 2 - 0 Ascoli.
Where is Brescia vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Ascoli part of?
Brescia vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 20% chance of winning, Ascoli a 51% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Brescia and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Ascoli?
Record (1 meetings): Brescia 1W | Draws 0 | Ascoli 0W.
What form are Brescia and Ascoli in?
Brescia (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-D-W-D. Ascoli (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Brescia's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Ascoli's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Ascoli's attack versus Brescia's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
20%
5.00
29%
3.41
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.82
1.75
Ascoli xG
5.00
20%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
17%
5.78
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
3%
28.90
18%
5.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Brescia and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Brescia and 1.75 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brescia's recent record stands at 12W 8D 4L from 24 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 11W 6D 7L across 24 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brescia on 1.83 PPG, Ascoli on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Brescia have managed 3W 6D 3L from 12 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.83 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Ascoli's away record stands at 8W 2D 2L across 12 trips, a 2.17 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.62 PPG overall record — Ascoli travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ascoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Brescia are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.46 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Blended
Ascoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 12W 8D 4L in their last 24 games (1.83 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 11W 6D 7L in their last 24 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Ascoli away?
Ascoli's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.25 PPG; Ascoli away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Brescia or Ascoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Ascoli in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Brescia and Ascoli runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Brescia's record when hosting Ascoli specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Brescia
3
Draws
1
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Ascoli?
From 6 meetings on record, Brescia have won 2, Ascoli have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2024, when Ascoli 1-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Ascoli?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brescia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Brescia at 67%, Ascoli at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Brescia) and 58% (Ascoli).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Ascoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Brescia's games and 67% of Ascoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brescia vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Brescia's recent games and 58% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Ascoli tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brescia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ascoli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Ascoli 2-0 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.06 xG and Ascoli 1.75 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Brescia beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ascoli landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 0.93 / defence 1.21 against Ascoli attack 1.24 / defence 1.18, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 20% | Draw 29% | Ascoli 51%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Brescia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 33%, Ascoli 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ascoli's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.83 PPG, Ascoli 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brescia win broke the near-deadlock. Brescia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Ascoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.