Benevento 5-0 Como – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Benevento at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Como fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Como travel to Stadio Ciro Vigorito to take on Benevento. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 23 February 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benevento stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benevento's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Ciro Vigorito this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Como — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Como, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Como away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Benevento 1.80 PPG, Como 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Benevento, 0 for Como and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Benevento in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Como in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 42% versus Como 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 33% | Como 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.30 xG and Como 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 1.073 / defence 1.066 | Como attack 0.958 / defence 1.250. League average goals — home 0.967 / away 1.175. Como bring a strong defensive rating of 1.250 — this is suppressing Benevento's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Benevento games / 24 Como games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 35% | Draw 34% | Como 31%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | Como 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benevento are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benevento offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 40% | Como 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Como | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Wednesday 23 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 35% | Draw 34% | Como 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 54% | xG Benevento 1.30 / Como 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 1.073 / def 1.066 | Como attack 0.958 / def 1.250 | league avg home 0.967 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Benevento (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Como xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Como kick off?
Benevento vs Como kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 23 February 2022 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Como?
Benevento 5 - 0 Como.
Where is Benevento vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Como part of?
Benevento vs Como is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 35% chance of winning, Como a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Como?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Benevento and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Como?
Record (1 meetings): Benevento 0W | Draws 1 | Como 0W.
What form are Benevento and Como in?
Benevento (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Como (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Benevento's attack rating (1.07) and Como's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Como's attack versus Benevento's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
35%
2.82
34%
2.97
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.50
1.20
Como xG
2.82
35%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
11%
9.36
8%
11.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.9 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.8 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Benevento and Como expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Benevento and 1.20 for Como, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 24 outings, Benevento have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 11W 7D 6L record — L-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Como's form line: 8W 10D 6L from 24 games, 1.42 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-W. The sample for Como is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Benevento on 1.67 PPG, Como on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Benevento have posted 1.75 PPG from 12 outings (6W 3D 3L).
On the road, Como have gone 4W 5D 3L from 12 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Benevento are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.33 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Como in 67%.
Defensively: Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Blended
Como
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Como in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 11W 7D 6L in their last 24 games (1.67 PPG), while Como have gone 8W 10D 6L in their last 24 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Como away?
Benevento's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.75 PPG; Como away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Benevento or Como been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Como in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Benevento and Como runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Feb 2022, when Benevento won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benevento's record when hosting Como specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Benevento
2
Draws
1
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Como?
From 4 meetings on record, Benevento have won 1, Como have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Como last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Benevento 0-0 Como.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Benevento see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 42%, Como 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Benevento) and 50% (Como).
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Benevento have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Como?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Benevento's games and 75% of Como's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benevento vs Como usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Benevento's recent games and 50% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Como tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Como in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benevento run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Como.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benevento beat Como 5-0 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 1.30 xG and Como 1.20 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Benevento beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Como landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 1.07 / defence 1.07 against Como attack 0.96 / defence 1.25, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 35% | Draw 34% | Como 31%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 33%, Como 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Como's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Benevento 1.67 PPG, Como 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Benevento win broke the near-deadlock. Benevento (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Como (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.