Cremonese 1-1 Reggina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Reggina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Reggina make the trip to Stadio Giovanni Zini to face Cremonese in Serie B, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 April 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Cremonese (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Cremonese at Stadio Giovanni Zini this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Reggina's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Reggina away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for Cremonese against 2.00 for Reggina. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Cremonese 1W, Reggina 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with Cremonese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Cremonese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Reggina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 52% versus Reggina 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cremonese 45% | Reggina 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.49 xG and Reggina 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 1.217 / defence 1.105 | Reggina attack 0.697 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 1.032 / away 1.040. Data: 31 Cremonese games / 31 Reggina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 51% | Draw 32% | Reggina 17%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 1.96 | Draw 3.12 | Reggina 5.88. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cremonese at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cremonese 80% | Reggina 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Reggina | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 51% | Draw 32% | Reggina 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Cremonese 1.49 / Reggina 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 1.217 / def 1.105 | Reggina attack 0.697 / def 1.190 | league avg home 1.032 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Reggina xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Reggina kick off?
Cremonese vs Reggina kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Reggina?
Cremonese 1 - 1 Reggina.
Where is Cremonese vs Reggina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Reggina part of?
Cremonese vs Reggina is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Reggina?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 51% chance of winning, Reggina a 17% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Reggina?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Cremonese and Reggina will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Reggina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Reggina?
Record (1 meetings): Cremonese 1W | Draws 0 | Reggina 0W.
What form are Cremonese and Reggina in?
Cremonese (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Reggina (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cremonese's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Reggina's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Reggina's attack (0.70x) against Cremonese's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
51%
1.97
32%
3.12
17%
5.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.29
0.80
Reggina xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
5.80
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
4%
25.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.1 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Reggina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Reggina expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Cremonese and 0.80 for Reggina, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Reggina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 31 outings, Cremonese have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 17W 8D 6L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Reggina's form line: 12W 7D 12L from 31 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Cremonese are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Reggina.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cremonese have posted 2.13 PPG from 15 outings (9W 5D 1L).
On the road, Reggina have gone 4W 5D 6L from 15 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cremonese are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Reggina are on 0.90 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Current Season
Reggina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Reggina in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 17W 8D 6L in their last 31 games (1.90 PPG), while Reggina have gone 12W 7D 12L in their last 31 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Reggina away?
Cremonese's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 2.13 PPG; Reggina away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Reggina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Reggina in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cremonese
1
Draws
0
Reggina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Reggina?
From 2 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 1, Reggina have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Reggina last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2022, when Cremonese 1-1 Reggina.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Reggina?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 60%, Reggina 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 47% for Cremonese and 20% for Reggina.
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Reggina in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Reggina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Reggina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Cremonese's recent matches and 33% of Reggina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Reggina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cremonese's recent games and 20% of Reggina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Reggina tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Reggina in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cremonese and Reggina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese and Reggina finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.49 xG and Reggina 0.80 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 1.22 / defence 1.10 against Reggina attack 0.70 / defence 1.19, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 51% | Draw 32% | Reggina 17%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 45%, Reggina 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Reggina's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.