Reggina 0-3 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Reggina take on Benevento.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Oreste Granillo plays host to Reggina versus Benevento in Serie B, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Tuesday 5 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Reggina's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Reggina have posted 5W 0D 5L at Stadio Oreste Granillo — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Benevento (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Benevento have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Reggina, 1.80 for Benevento — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Reggina lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 0–4 with Benevento winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Reggina half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Benevento half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 13% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggina 39% versus Benevento 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Reggina 32% | Benevento 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggina 0.94 xG and Benevento 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggina attack 0.833 / defence 1.087 | Benevento attack 0.887 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.049 / away 1.037. Data: 32 Reggina games / 31 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggina 30% | Draw 38% | Benevento 33%. Fair-value odds: Reggina 3.33 | Draw 2.63 | Benevento 3.03. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.94 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Reggina 30% | Benevento 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggina vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Oreste Granillo • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggina 30% | Draw 38% | Benevento 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 42% | xG Reggina 0.94 / Benevento 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Reggina attack 0.833 / def 1.087 | Benevento attack 0.887 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.049 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Reggina xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Benevento xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggina vs Benevento kick off?
Reggina vs Benevento kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 5 April 2022 at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What was the final score in Reggina vs Benevento?
Reggina 0 - 3 Benevento.
Where is Reggina vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What competition is Reggina vs Benevento part of?
Reggina vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggina vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Reggina a 30% chance of winning, Benevento a 33% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Reggina vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Reggina and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Reggina vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Benevento?
Record (1 meetings): Reggina 0W | Draws 0 | Benevento 1W.
What form are Reggina and Benevento in?
Reggina (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Benevento (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Reggina's attack rating (0.83) and Benevento's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Benevento's attack (0.89x) against Reggina's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 32/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.38
38%
2.65
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Reggina xG
Total xG
1.94
1.00
Benevento xG
3.38
30%
Home win
2.65
38%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
11%
9.18
13%
7.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 14.3 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggina vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Reggina and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Reggina and 1.00 for Benevento, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggina vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 31 outings, Reggina have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 12W 7D 12L record — D-L-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Benevento's form line: 15W 9D 7L from 31 games, 1.74 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Reggina against 1.74 for Benevento. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Reggina have posted 1.67 PPG from 15 outings (8W 1D 6L).
On the road, Benevento have gone 6W 5D 4L from 15 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Reggina are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.68 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Benevento in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggina
Current Season
Benevento
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggina and Benevento in coming into this match?
Reggina have gone 12W 7D 12L in their last 31 games (1.39 PPG), while Benevento have gone 15W 9D 7L in their last 31 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggina at home or Benevento away?
Reggina's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggina at home: 1.67 PPG; Benevento away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Reggina or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Benevento in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Benevento won 4-0 on 27 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reggina have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Benevento — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Reggina
2
Draws
2
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Benevento?
From 4 meetings on record, Reggina have won 0, Benevento have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Reggina and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2023, when Benevento 1-1 Reggina.
Who has won more matches between Reggina and Benevento?
Benevento have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggina 40%, Benevento 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 47% for Reggina and 13% for Benevento.
On the defensive side: Reggina keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Benevento in 33%; Reggina have failed to score in 33% of games; Benevento in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggina home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggina play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Reggina's recent matches and 40% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggina vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Reggina's recent games and 13% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggina and Benevento tend to score early?
Reggina have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Benevento in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benevento run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Reggina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benevento beat Reggina 0-3 at Stadio Oreste Granillo, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggina 0.94 xG and Benevento 1.00 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Reggina fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Benevento outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggina attack 0.83 / defence 1.09 against Benevento attack 0.89 / defence 1.08, drawn from 32/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggina 30% | Draw 38% | Benevento 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Benevento win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggina 32%, Benevento 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggina's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Benevento's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggina 1.39 PPG, Benevento 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Benevento win broke the near-deadlock. Reggina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benevento (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.