Ascoli 1-0 Pordenone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ascoli at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ascoli vs Pordenone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ascoli host Pordenone at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Serie B, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 April 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ascoli — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Ascoli's home record at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pordenone stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
Pordenone's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
On current form, Ascoli have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Ascoli, 0 for Pordenone and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Ascoli winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Ascoli trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Pordenone trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 58% versus Pordenone 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ascoli 45% | Pordenone 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.52 xG and Pordenone 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.977 / defence 1.102 | Pordenone attack 0.652 / defence 1.505. League average goals — home 1.032 / away 1.040. Pordenone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.505 — this is suppressing Ascoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Ascoli games / 31 Pordenone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 53% | Draw 32% | Pordenone 16%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 1.89 | Draw 3.12 | Pordenone 6.25. Ascoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ascoli as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ascoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ascoli 60% | Pordenone 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Pordenone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 53% | Draw 32% | Pordenone 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Ascoli 1.52 / Pordenone 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.977 / def 1.102 | Pordenone attack 0.652 / def 1.505 | league avg home 1.032 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Pordenone xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Pordenone kick off?
Ascoli vs Pordenone kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Pordenone?
Ascoli 1 - 0 Pordenone.
Where is Ascoli vs Pordenone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Pordenone part of?
Ascoli vs Pordenone is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Pordenone?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 53% chance of winning, Pordenone a 16% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Pordenone?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Ascoli and Pordenone will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Pordenone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Pordenone?
Record (1 meetings): Ascoli 1W | Draws 0 | Pordenone 0W.
What form are Ascoli and Pordenone in?
Ascoli (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Pordenone (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ascoli's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Pordenone's defensive record (1.50x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Pordenone's attack versus Ascoli's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
53%
1.89
32%
3.16
16%
6.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.26
0.75
Pordenone xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
6.43
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
25%
4.00
3%
29.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 11.8 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Pordenone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Pordenone expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Ascoli and 0.75 for Pordenone, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Pordenone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ascoli's recent record stands at 14W 7D 10L from 31 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Pordenone, meanwhile, have gone 2W 8D 21L across 31 games — 0.45 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ascoli by 1.13 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pordenone heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ascoli have managed 5W 5D 5L from 15 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pordenone's away record stands at 1W 2D 12L across 15 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ascoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ascoli are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Pordenone are on 0.71 scored and 1.84 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Current Season
Pordenone
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Pordenone in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 14W 7D 10L in their last 31 games (1.58 PPG), while Pordenone have gone 2W 8D 21L in their last 31 (0.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Pordenone away?
Ascoli's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 1.33 PPG; Pordenone away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Ascoli
0
Draws
0
Pordenone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Pordenone?
From 2 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 2, Pordenone have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Pordenone last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2022, when Ascoli 1-0 Pordenone.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Pordenone?
Ascoli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Pordenone see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 53%, Pordenone 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Ascoli) and 47% (Pordenone).
On the defensive side: Ascoli have failed to score in 27% of games; Pordenone in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Pordenone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Pordenone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Ascoli's recent matches and 47% of Pordenone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ascoli vs Pordenone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Ascoli's recent games and 47% of Pordenone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Pordenone tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Pordenone in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ascoli edge out Pordenone 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ascoli beat Pordenone 1-0 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 1.52 xG and Pordenone 0.75 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.98 / defence 1.10 against Pordenone attack 0.65 / defence 1.50, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 53% | Draw 32% | Pordenone 16%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 45%, Pordenone 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Pordenone's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ascoli arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.45. That form edge translated into the three points. Ascoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Pordenone (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.