Crotone 1-1 Perugia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Perugia at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crotone vs Perugia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crotone host Perugia at Stadio Ezio Scida in Serie B, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 April 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Crotone — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Crotone's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Ezio Scida this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Crotone are significantly better at Stadio Ezio Scida than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Perugia stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Perugia have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Perugia — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Crotone have won 0, Perugia 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Perugia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Crotone in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Perugia in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crotone 55% versus Perugia 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Crotone 48% | Perugia 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crotone 0.96 xG and Perugia 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crotone attack 0.895 / defence 1.200 | Perugia attack 0.967 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.043 / away 1.057. Data: 31 Crotone games / 31 Perugia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crotone 26% | Draw 35% | Perugia 39%. Fair-value odds: Crotone 3.85 | Draw 2.86 | Perugia 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Perugia at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Perugia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Crotone 40% | Perugia 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crotone vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Ezio Scida • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crotone 26% | Draw 35% | Perugia 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG Crotone 0.96 / Perugia 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Crotone attack 0.895 / def 1.200 | Perugia attack 0.967 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.043 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Perugia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Crotone xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Perugia xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crotone vs Perugia kick off?
Crotone vs Perugia kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Stadio Ezio Scida.
What was the final score in Crotone vs Perugia?
Crotone 1 - 1 Perugia.
Where is Crotone vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ezio Scida.
What competition is Crotone vs Perugia part of?
Crotone vs Perugia is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Crotone vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Crotone a 26% chance of winning, Perugia a 39% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Perugia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crotone vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Crotone and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Crotone vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crotone and Perugia?
Record (1 meetings): Crotone 0W | Draws 0 | Perugia 1W.
What form are Crotone and Perugia in?
Crotone (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Perugia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Crotone's attack at 0.90x the league average against Perugia's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Perugia's attack versus Crotone's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Perugia Win
26%
3.86
35%
2.87
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Crotone xG
Total xG
2.19
1.23
Perugia xG
3.86
26%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
8%
13.16
15%
6.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 13.7 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crotone vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Crotone and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Crotone and 1.23 for Perugia, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Crotone vs Perugia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Crotone's recent record stands at 3W 10D 18L from 31 games, a 0.61 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Perugia, meanwhile, have gone 11W 13D 7L across 31 games — 1.48 PPG, with L-D-W-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Perugia by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Crotone heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Crotone have managed 3W 7D 5L from 15 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.61 PPG overall — Crotone are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Perugia's away record stands at 7W 6D 2L across 15 trips, a 1.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Perugia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Crotone are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Perugia are on 1.06 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Perugia in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crotone
Current Season
Perugia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crotone and Perugia in coming into this match?
Crotone have gone 3W 10D 18L in their last 31 games (0.61 PPG), while Perugia have gone 11W 13D 7L in their last 31 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crotone at home or Perugia away?
Perugia's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crotone at home: 1.07 PPG; Perugia away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Crotone or Perugia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crotone have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Perugia in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Crotone
1
Draws
1
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crotone and Perugia?
From 2 meetings on record, Crotone have won 0, Perugia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crotone and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2022, when Crotone 1-1 Perugia.
Who has won more matches between Crotone and Perugia?
Perugia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crotone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crotone 53%, Perugia 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Crotone) and 47% (Perugia).
On the defensive side: Perugia in 47%; Crotone have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crotone home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crotone play Perugia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Crotone's recent matches and 53% of Perugia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crotone vs Perugia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Crotone's recent games and 47% of Perugia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crotone and Perugia tend to score early?
Crotone have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Perugia in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crotone and Perugia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crotone and Perugia finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Ezio Scida, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crotone 0.96 xG and Perugia 1.23 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crotone attack 0.90 / defence 1.20 against Perugia attack 0.97 / defence 1.03, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crotone 26% | Draw 35% | Perugia 39%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crotone 48%, Perugia 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crotone's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Perugia's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Perugia arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.61. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.