Spal 0-2 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spal vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Spal host Cremonese at Stadio Paolo Mazza in Serie B, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 March 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Spal — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Spal at Stadio Paolo Mazza this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cremonese away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cremonese — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Spal, 0 for Cremonese and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Spal trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Cremonese trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spal 57% versus Cremonese 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spal 47% | Cremonese 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spal 1.20 xG and Cremonese 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spal attack 1.053 / defence 1.412 | Cremonese attack 0.969 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.038 / away 1.039. Data: 30 Spal games / 30 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spal 29% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 39%. Fair-value odds: Spal 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Cremonese 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Spal 70% | Cremonese 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spal vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Paolo Mazza • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spal 29% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Spal 1.20 / Cremonese 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Spal attack 1.053 / def 1.412 | Cremonese attack 0.969 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.038 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Spal xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Cremonese xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spal vs Cremonese kick off?
Spal vs Cremonese kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What was the final score in Spal vs Cremonese?
Spal 0 - 2 Cremonese.
Where is Spal vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What competition is Spal vs Cremonese part of?
Spal vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spal vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Spal a 29% chance of winning, Cremonese a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spal vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Spal and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Spal vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Cremonese?
Record (1 meetings): Spal 0W | Draws 1 | Cremonese 0W.
What form are Spal and Cremonese in?
Spal (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Cremonese (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Spal's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Cremonese's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Spal's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
29%
3.47
32%
3.12
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Spal xG
Total xG
2.62
1.42
Cremonese xG
3.47
29%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
7%
14.37
12%
8.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.3 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spal vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Spal and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Spal and 1.42 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Spal vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Spal have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 7W 11D 12L record — L-D-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Cremonese's form line: 16W 8D 6L from 30 games, 1.87 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Cremonese are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Spal.
Venue Form
On home soil, Spal have posted 1.00 PPG from 15 outings (3W 6D 6L).
On the road, Cremonese have gone 7W 3D 5L from 15 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Spal are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.50 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spal
Current Season
Cremonese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spal and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Spal have gone 7W 11D 12L in their last 30 games (1.07 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 16W 8D 6L in their last 30 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spal at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spal at home: 1.00 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Spal or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spal have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Cremonese in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Spal
1
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Cremonese?
From 2 meetings on record, Spal have won 0, Cremonese have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spal and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2022, when Spal 0-2 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Spal and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spal 73%, Cremonese 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Spal) and 47% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Cremonese in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spal home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spal play Cremonese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Spal's games and 47% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spal vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Spal's recent games and 47% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spal and Cremonese tend to score early?
Spal have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cremonese cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Spal.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Spal 0-2 at Stadio Paolo Mazza, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spal 1.20 xG and Cremonese 1.42 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Spal fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spal attack 1.05 / defence 1.41 against Cremonese attack 0.97 / defence 1.10, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spal 29% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 39%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spal 47%, Cremonese 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spal's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cremonese's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Spal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward. Cremonese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.