Alessandria 2-2 Spal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Alessandria take on Spal.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alessandria host Spal at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta in Serie B, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 April 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alessandria stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta, Alessandria have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Alessandria are significantly better at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Spal have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Spal's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Spal — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (0.90 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Alessandria, 0 for Spal and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 3–2 with Alessandria winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Alessandria in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Spal in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alessandria 45% versus Spal 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alessandria 42% | Spal 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alessandria 1.13 xG and Spal 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alessandria attack 0.768 / defence 1.310 | Spal attack 0.762 / defence 1.422. League average goals — home 1.032 / away 1.040. Alessandria's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Spal bring a strong defensive rating of 1.422 — this is suppressing Alessandria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Alessandria games / 31 Spal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alessandria 34% | Draw 36% | Spal 30%. Fair-value odds: Alessandria 2.94 | Draw 2.78 | Spal 3.33. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Alessandria 40% | Spal 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alessandria vs Spal | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alessandria 34% | Draw 36% | Spal 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG Alessandria 1.13 / Spal 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Alessandria attack 0.768 / def 1.310 | Spal attack 0.762 / def 1.422 | league avg home 1.032 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Alessandria xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Spal xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alessandria vs Spal kick off?
Alessandria vs Spal kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
What was the final score in Alessandria vs Spal?
Alessandria 2 - 2 Spal.
Where is Alessandria vs Spal being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
What competition is Alessandria vs Spal part of?
Alessandria vs Spal is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Alessandria vs Spal?
Our statistical model gives Alessandria a 34% chance of winning, Spal a 30% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Alessandria vs Spal?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Alessandria and Spal will score (BTTS).
Will Alessandria vs Spal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alessandria and Spal?
Record (1 meetings): Alessandria 1W | Draws 0 | Spal 0W.
What form are Alessandria and Spal in?
Alessandria (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Spal (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Alessandria's attack at 0.77x the league average against Spal's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Spal's attack versus Alessandria's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.91
36%
2.79
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Alessandria xG
Total xG
2.17
1.04
Spal xG
2.91
34%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
12%
8.22
10%
10.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.9 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alessandria vs Spal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Alessandria and Spal expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Alessandria and 1.04 for Spal, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Alessandria vs Spal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 31 outings, Alessandria have picked up 0.81 PPG on a 6W 7D 18L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Spal's form line: 7W 11D 13L from 31 games, 1.03 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alessandria on 0.81 PPG, Spal on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Alessandria have posted 1.07 PPG from 15 outings (4W 4D 7L).
On the road, Spal have gone 4W 5D 6L from 15 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Alessandria are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Spal are on 1.13 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alessandria
Current Season
Spal
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alessandria and Spal in coming into this match?
Alessandria have gone 6W 7D 18L in their last 31 games (0.81 PPG), while Spal have gone 7W 11D 13L in their last 31 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alessandria at home or Spal away?
Spal's away record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alessandria at home: 1.07 PPG; Spal away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Alessandria
1
Draws
0
Spal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alessandria and Spal?
From 2 meetings on record, Alessandria have won 1, Spal have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Alessandria and Spal last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2022, when Alessandria 2-2 Spal.
Who has won more matches between Alessandria and Spal?
Alessandria have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alessandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alessandria 47%, Spal 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Alessandria and 33% for Spal.
On the defensive side: Alessandria have failed to score in 27% of games; Spal in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alessandria home games / Spal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alessandria play Spal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Alessandria's recent matches and 40% of Spal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alessandria vs Spal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Alessandria's recent games and 33% of Spal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alessandria and Spal tend to score early?
Alessandria have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Spal in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alessandria and Spal share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alessandria and Spal finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alessandria 1.13 xG and Spal 1.04 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Alessandria beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Spal outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alessandria attack 0.77 / defence 1.31 against Spal attack 0.76 / defence 1.42, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alessandria 34% | Draw 36% | Spal 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alessandria 42%, Spal 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alessandria's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Spal's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alessandria 0.81 PPG, Spal 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Alessandria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm. Spal (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.