Cremonese 2-1 Pordenone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Pordenone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cremonese and Pordenone meet at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 16 March 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Cremonese's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cremonese's home record at Stadio Giovanni Zini: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pordenone (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Pordenone have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Cremonese's 1.80 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Pordenone's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Cremonese, 0 for Pordenone and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Cremonese half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Pordenone half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 52% versus Pordenone 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 45% | Pordenone 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.93 xG and Pordenone 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 1.221 / defence 1.056 | Pordenone attack 0.593 / defence 1.520. League average goals — home 1.039 / away 1.088. Pordenone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.520 — this is suppressing Cremonese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Cremonese games / 29 Pordenone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 64% | Draw 26% | Pordenone 10%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 1.56 | Draw 3.85 | Pordenone 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Cremonese (64%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cremonese at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Cremonese 80% | Pordenone 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Pordenone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Wednesday 16 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 64% | Draw 26% | Pordenone 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 45% | xG Cremonese 1.93 / Pordenone 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 1.221 / def 1.056 | Pordenone attack 0.593 / def 1.520 | league avg home 1.039 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Pordenone xG
45%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Pordenone kick off?
Cremonese vs Pordenone kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 16 March 2022 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Pordenone?
Cremonese 2 - 1 Pordenone.
Where is Cremonese vs Pordenone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Pordenone part of?
Cremonese vs Pordenone is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Pordenone?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 64% chance of winning, Pordenone a 10% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Pordenone?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cremonese and Pordenone will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Pordenone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Pordenone?
Record (1 meetings): Cremonese 0W | Draws 1 | Pordenone 0W.
What form are Cremonese and Pordenone in?
Cremonese (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Pordenone (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cremonese's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Pordenone's defensive record (1.52x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. Flip it around — Pordenone's attack (0.59x) against Cremonese's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 1-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
64%
1.55
26%
3.87
10%
10.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.61
0.68
Pordenone xG
1.55
64%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
10.22
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
51%
1.98
15%
6.88
Win to Nil
33%
3.07
1%
70.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 9.7 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.7 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Pordenone?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Pordenone expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Cremonese and 0.68 for Pordenone, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Pordenone?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cremonese come into this having played 29 games, going 15W 8D 6L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Pordenone sit at 0.45 PPG from 29 outings (2W 7D 20L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five.
Cremonese carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.38 PPG clear of Pordenone — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Cremonese's home form reads 8W 5D 1L across 14 games on their own ground, a 2.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Pordenone have taken 0.36 points per game from 14 outings (1W 2D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cremonese are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Pordenone are on 0.69 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Current Season
Pordenone
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Pordenone in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 15W 8D 6L in their last 29 games (1.83 PPG), while Pordenone have gone 2W 7D 20L in their last 29 (0.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Pordenone away?
Cremonese's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 2.07 PPG; Pordenone away: 0.36 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Pordenone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Pordenone in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cremonese
1
Draws
0
Pordenone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Pordenone?
From 2 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 1, Pordenone have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Pordenone last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2022, when Cremonese 2-1 Pordenone.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Pordenone?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Pordenone see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 57%, Pordenone 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Cremonese) and 43% (Pordenone).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Pordenone in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Pordenone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Pordenone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Cremonese's recent matches and 43% of Pordenone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Pordenone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Cremonese's recent games and 43% of Pordenone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Pordenone tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Pordenone in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cremonese edge out Pordenone 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Pordenone 2-1 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.93 xG and Pordenone 0.68 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 1.22 / defence 1.06 against Pordenone attack 0.59 / defence 1.52, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 64% | Draw 26% | Pordenone 10%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 45%, Pordenone 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Pordenone's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.45. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.