Vicenza Virtus 0-1 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Vicenza Virtus take on Parma.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 30 as Vicenza Virtus welcome Parma to Stadio Romeo Menti. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 15 March 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Vicenza Virtus have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Vicenza Virtus's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Romeo Menti this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Parma — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Parma's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Vicenza Virtus) versus 1.20 (Parma). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Vicenza Virtus, 1 for Parma and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Parma winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Vicenza Virtus in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Parma in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vicenza Virtus 52% versus Parma 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vicenza Virtus 52% | Parma 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 1.08 xG and Parma 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.970 / defence 1.287 | Parma attack 0.786 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.043 / away 1.083. Data: 29 Vicenza Virtus games / 29 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 31% | Draw 37% | Parma 32%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 3.23 | Draw 2.70 | Parma 3.12. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Vicenza Virtus 70% | Parma 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 31% | Draw 37% | Parma 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 48% | xG Vicenza Virtus 1.08 / Parma 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.970 / def 1.287 | Parma attack 0.786 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.043 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Parma xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Parma kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Parma kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 15 March 2022 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Vicenza Virtus vs Parma?
Vicenza Virtus 0 - 1 Parma.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Parma part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Parma is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 31% chance of winning, Parma a 32% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Parma?
Record (1 meetings): Vicenza Virtus 0W | Draws 0 | Parma 1W.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Parma in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Parma (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Vicenza Virtus's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Parma's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Vicenza Virtus's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.21
37%
2.72
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
2.17
1.09
Parma xG
3.21
31%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
10%
9.60
11%
9.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 12.5 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.09 for Parma, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vicenza Virtus's recent record stands at 5W 6D 18L from 29 games, a 0.72 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Parma, meanwhile, have gone 7W 14D 8L across 29 games — 1.21 PPG, with D-W-D-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Parma by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vicenza Virtus heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Vicenza Virtus have managed 3W 4D 7L from 14 games — 0.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Parma's away record stands at 3W 7D 4L across 14 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.24 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Current Season
Parma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Parma in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 5W 6D 18L in their last 29 games (0.72 PPG), while Parma have gone 7W 14D 8L in their last 29 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vicenza Virtus at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vicenza Virtus at home: 0.93 PPG; Parma away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Vicenza Virtus or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vicenza Virtus have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Parma in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Vicenza Virtus
0
Draws
2
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Parma?
From 2 meetings on record, Vicenza Virtus have won 0, Parma have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vicenza Virtus and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2022, when Vicenza Virtus 0-1 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Vicenza Virtus and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vicenza Virtus 57%, Parma 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Vicenza Virtus) and 57% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Parma in 36%; Vicenza Virtus have failed to score in 36% of games; Parma in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Parma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Vicenza Virtus's games and 57% of Parma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Vicenza Virtus's recent games and 57% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Parma tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Parma in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Parma edge out Vicenza Virtus 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Vicenza Virtus 0-1 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vicenza Virtus 1.08 xG and Parma 1.09 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vicenza Virtus fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vicenza Virtus attack 0.97 / defence 1.29 against Parma attack 0.79 / defence 1.06, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vicenza Virtus 31% | Draw 37% | Parma 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Parma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vicenza Virtus 52%, Parma 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vicenza Virtus's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Parma's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.72. Form held, and they took the win. Vicenza Virtus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Parma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.