Brescia 2-2 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Brescia take on Benevento.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Mario Rigamonti plays host to Brescia versus Benevento in Serie B, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Tuesday 15 March 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Brescia (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Brescia's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Mario Rigamonti this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Benevento's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Benevento have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Brescia, 1.60 for Benevento — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Brescia, 0 for Benevento and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Brescia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Brescia half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Benevento half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 8% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 57% versus Benevento 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brescia 36% | Benevento 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 0.97 xG and Benevento 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 1.018 / defence 1.123 | Benevento attack 0.867 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.043 / away 1.083. Data: 29 Brescia games / 28 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 29% | Draw 38% | Benevento 33%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 3.45 | Draw 2.63 | Benevento 3.03. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Brescia 60% | Benevento 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 29% | Draw 38% | Benevento 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 44% | xG Brescia 0.97 / Benevento 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 1.018 / def 1.123 | Benevento attack 0.867 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.043 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Benevento xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Benevento kick off?
Brescia vs Benevento kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 15 March 2022 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Benevento?
Brescia 2 - 2 Benevento.
Where is Brescia vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Benevento part of?
Brescia vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 29% chance of winning, Benevento a 33% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Brescia and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Benevento?
Record (1 meetings): Brescia 1W | Draws 0 | Benevento 0W.
What form are Brescia and Benevento in?
Brescia (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Benevento (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Brescia's attack rating (1.02) and Benevento's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Benevento's attack (0.87x) against Brescia's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 29/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.47
38%
2.63
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.02
1.05
Benevento xG
3.47
29%
Home win
2.63
38%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
10%
9.96
13%
7.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 13.9 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Brescia and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Brescia and 1.05 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 28 outings, Brescia have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 13W 10D 5L record — W-D-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Benevento's form line: 14W 8D 6L from 28 games, 1.79 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Brescia against 1.79 for Benevento. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Brescia have posted 1.38 PPG from 13 outings (4W 6D 3L).
On the road, Benevento have gone 6W 4D 3L from 13 away games — 1.69 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Brescia are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.61 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Benevento in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Current Season
Benevento
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Benevento in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 13W 10D 5L in their last 28 games (1.75 PPG), while Benevento have gone 14W 8D 6L in their last 28 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Benevento away?
Benevento's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.38 PPG; Benevento away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Brescia or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Benevento in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brescia have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Benevento — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Brescia
1
Draws
1
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Benevento?
From 4 meetings on record, Brescia have won 2, Benevento have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Benevento 1-0 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Benevento?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Brescia see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 62%, Benevento 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Brescia and 8% for Benevento.
On the defensive side: Benevento in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Brescia's recent matches and 38% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brescia vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Brescia's recent games and 8% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Benevento tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Benevento in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brescia and Benevento share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia and Benevento finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 0.97 xG and Benevento 1.05 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Brescia beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Benevento outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 1.02 / defence 1.12 against Benevento attack 0.87 / defence 0.91, drawn from 29/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 29% | Draw 38% | Benevento 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 36%, Benevento 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Benevento's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.75 PPG, Benevento 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Benevento (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.