Cittadella 0-0 Reggina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cittadella at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cittadella vs Reggina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Reggina make the trip to Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato to face Cittadella in Serie B, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Tuesday 15 March 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cittadella have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Cittadella have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Reggina's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Reggina's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Cittadella against 1.60 for Reggina. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Cittadella, 0 for Reggina and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Cittadella winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Cittadella half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Reggina half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cittadella 45% versus Reggina 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cittadella 31% | Reggina 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cittadella 1.24 xG and Reggina 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cittadella attack 0.939 / defence 1.127 | Reggina attack 0.726 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 1.043 / away 1.083. Reggina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing Cittadella's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Cittadella games / 29 Reggina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cittadella 41% | Draw 36% | Reggina 23%. Fair-value odds: Cittadella 2.44 | Draw 2.78 | Reggina 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cittadella as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cittadella if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Cittadella 40% | Reggina 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cittadella vs Reggina | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cittadella 41% | Draw 36% | Reggina 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Cittadella 1.24 / Reggina 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Cittadella attack 0.939 / def 1.127 | Reggina attack 0.726 / def 1.270 | league avg home 1.043 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Cittadella (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Cittadella xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Reggina xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cittadella vs Reggina kick off?
Cittadella vs Reggina kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 15 March 2022 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What was the final score in Cittadella vs Reggina?
Cittadella 0 - 0 Reggina.
Where is Cittadella vs Reggina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What competition is Cittadella vs Reggina part of?
Cittadella vs Reggina is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cittadella vs Reggina?
Our statistical model gives Cittadella a 41% chance of winning, Reggina a 23% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Cittadella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cittadella vs Reggina?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cittadella and Reggina will score (BTTS).
Will Cittadella vs Reggina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Reggina?
Record (1 meetings): Cittadella 1W | Draws 0 | Reggina 0W.
What form are Cittadella and Reggina in?
Cittadella (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Reggina (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cittadella's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Reggina's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Reggina's attack (0.73x) against Cittadella's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cittadella Win
41%
2.44
36%
2.76
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Cittadella xG
Total xG
2.13
0.89
Reggina xG
2.44
41%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
7%
15.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 10.5 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.1 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cittadella vs Reggina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Cittadella and Reggina expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Cittadella and 0.89 for Reggina, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Cittadella vs Reggina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 29 outings, Cittadella have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 11W 10D 8L record — W-W-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Reggina's form line: 11W 6D 12L from 29 games, 1.34 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Cittadella against 1.34 for Reggina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cittadella have posted 1.50 PPG from 14 outings (6W 3D 5L).
On the road, Reggina have gone 4W 4D 6L from 14 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cittadella are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Reggina are on 0.93 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cittadella
Current Season
Reggina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cittadella and Reggina in coming into this match?
Cittadella have gone 11W 10D 8L in their last 29 games (1.48 PPG), while Reggina have gone 11W 6D 12L in their last 29 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cittadella at home or Reggina away?
Cittadella's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cittadella at home: 1.50 PPG; Reggina away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Cittadella or Reggina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Reggina in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Reggina won 3-0 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cittadella have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Reggina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cittadella
1
Draws
1
Reggina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Reggina?
From 4 meetings on record, Cittadella have won 2, Reggina have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cittadella and Reggina last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Cittadella 3-2 Reggina.
Who has won more matches between Cittadella and Reggina?
Cittadella have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cittadella 43%, Reggina 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 43% for Cittadella and 21% for Reggina.
On the defensive side: Cittadella keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Reggina in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cittadella home games / Reggina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cittadella play Reggina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Cittadella's recent matches and 36% of Reggina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cittadella vs Reggina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Cittadella's recent games and 21% of Reggina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cittadella and Reggina tend to score early?
Cittadella have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Reggina in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cittadella's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cittadella and Reggina finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cittadella 1.24 xG and Reggina 0.89 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cittadella fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Reggina landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cittadella attack 0.94 / defence 1.13 against Reggina attack 0.73 / defence 1.27, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cittadella 41% | Draw 36% | Reggina 23%, with Cittadella to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cittadella 31%, Reggina 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cittadella's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Reggina's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cittadella 1.48 PPG, Reggina 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cittadella (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Reggina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.